5035 River Rd · Hurlock, MD 21643

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1969 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins5/8/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/12/2026 @ 11:30 AM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $5,000. This single detached home is located in Hurlock within Dorchester County. The property sits on an approximately +/- 1.06 acre lot, offering added land area and potential for various uses, subject to zoning and local regulations. The property’s occupancy is unknown. The area provides easy access to the major traffic artery, Williamsburg Rd, connecting to other regions of the city.

Key facts

• 1.06 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1969

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 1.06 ACRE LOT

🔨 Auction listing. The $30,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $159,730 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.7% in Hurlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#332 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,730
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -81.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5035 River Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	0mo	$64,000	$74	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $117,238
• Equity at exit: $143,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $321,392
• Equity at exit: $310,321

Cash invested: $44,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21643

• Home prices YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$838
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $159,730

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,933
• Closing costs: $4,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins5/8/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/12/2026 @ 11:30 AM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $5,000. This single detached home is located in Hurlock within Dorchester County. The property sits on an approximately +/- 1.06 acre lot, offering added land area and potential for various uses, subject to zoning and local regulations. The property’s occupancy is unknown. The area provides easy access to the major traffic artery, Williamsburg Rd, connecting to other regions of the city.

2. 2026-02-20
   status Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins5/8/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/12/2026 @ 11:30 AM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $5,000. This single detached home is located in Hurlock within Dorchester County. The property sits on an approximately +/- 1.06 acre lot, offering added land area and potential for various uses, subject to zoning and local regulations. The property’s occupancy is unknown. The area provides easy access to the major traffic artery, Williamsburg Rd, connecting to other regions of the city.

3. 2026-01-26
   status Pending 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins5/8/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/12/2026 @ 11:30 AM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $5,000. This single detached home is located in Hurlock within Dorchester County. The property sits on an approximately +/- 1.06 acre lot, offering added land area and potential for various uses, subject to zoning and local regulations. The property’s occupancy is unknown. The area provides easy access to the major traffic artery, Williamsburg Rd, connecting to other regions of the city.

4. 2025-12-30
   listed $30,000 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group website bidding platform. Bidding begins5/8/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/12/2026 @ 11:30 AM. The list price is the suggested opening bid. Deposit: $5,000. This single detached home is located in Hurlock within Dorchester County. The property sits on an approximately +/- 1.06 acre lot, offering added land area and potential for various uses, subject to zoning and local regulations. The property’s occupancy is unknown. The area provides easy access to the major traffic artery, Williamsburg Rd, connecting to other regions of the city.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,947
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$4,647
• Taxable income: $3,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$790
• After-tax cash flow: $4,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Hurlock

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #17536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,176

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 28% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.36%
• Current HPI: 390.419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $30,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,344 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.