9373 Fan Palm Dr · Brownsville, TX 78566

$396,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 8,775 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stunning modern farmhouse in the growing Elm Ridge Subdivision featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, an open-concept layout filled with natural light, and a dedicated formal dining area. This single-story home offers porcelain tile flooring, LED lighting, premium solid wood cabinetry, and upscale finishes throughout. Built with foam insulation, including the garage, this home was designed for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Situated on a spacious corner lot and outside of a flood zone, the property features a large backyard with endless potential for a future pool or outdoor retreat, along with a fully fenced privacy yard, front sprinkler system, and front yard grass already instal

Key facts

• Foam insulation
• Led lighting
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DEDICATED FORMAL DINING AREA
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• LED LIGHTING
• PREMIUM SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• FOAM INSULATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Subdivision: ELM RIDGE

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; One story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Corner lot

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Smoke detectors installed

🏗️ New construction. The $396,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,740.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Los Fresnos El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 561 students, 76% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 43% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,792 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,740
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9448 W Queen Palm Dr W	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	2mo	$315,000	$143	78
9396 North Queen Palm	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,820 (-11%)	5mo	$320,000	$176	71
9508 Romano Palm	0.03mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,986 (-2%)	19mo	$339,900	$171	69
9600 Lake Concordia Ct	0.75mi	4/3.0	1,951 (-4%)	2mo	$299,900	$154	54
9753 Lake Arthur Ct	0.59mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,087 (+3%)	10mo	$342,500	$164	49
9708 Lake Arthur Ct	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,268 (+11%)	6mo	$360,000	$159	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $85,454
• Equity at exit: $205,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $257,822
• Equity at exit: $368,213

Cash invested: $93,447 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78566

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,006/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,919

Max offer price $318,699

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $11	+0% $-104	+5% $-219	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-214	+0% $-104	+5% $6	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-19	base $-104	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,435
• Closing costs: $10,012
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9448 W Queen Palm Los Fresnos, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,800	$1.24	44d	1	0.09mi
30731 Saint Francis Ave Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1827	$3,500	$1.92	44d	1	0.29mi
30731 Saint Francis Ave Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,500	$1.37	22d	1	0.29mi
34669 Saint Simone Ave Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$3,000	$1.49	44d	1	0.31mi
33828 California Rd Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	44d	1	1.20mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	14d	1	1.39mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	14d	1	1.39mi
215 Zapata Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	3.0	1953	$2,300	$1.18	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $396,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $396,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $396,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $396,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $396,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $396,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $396,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $396,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $396,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $396,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $396,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $396,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $396,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $396,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $396,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $396,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $396,000
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,695
• − Property taxes: −$5,006
• − Insurance: −$1,669
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,676
• − Management: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$9,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• City population: 212,132
• Population (ZIP): 24,927

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Current HPI: 218.1236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $396,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $395,000 RGVMLS