Bailey Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$305,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bailey floor plan offers 1,882 square feet of well-designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious single-story layout is ideal for growing families, combining open-concept living with thoughtful functionality throughout. The heart of the home features a modern kitchen that flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating an inviting atmosphere for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a generous island, ample counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it as practical as it is stylish. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Four additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and plentiful storage spaces add everyday convenience, while the open flow of the living areas enhances comfort and connection. Designed with modern families in mind, the Bailey floor plan delivers a perfect blend of spaciousness, efficiency, and style- offering everything you need to feel right at home in a smart, functional layout.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Generous island
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $305,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,895.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,678 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,895
• List price: $305,990
• Delta: -8.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.11mi	5/2.0	1,942 (-0%)	3mo	$279,990	$144	92
3037 Duskshine Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+4%)	0mo	$255,990	$127	84
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+5%)	2mo	$322,670	$159	83
3005 Helios Hvn	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+5%)	3mo	$314,670	$155	82
1016 Star Skye Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-2%)	1mo	$330,800	$173	76
3040 Helios Haven Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (+5%)	4mo	$334,990	$164	75
1040 Star Skye Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-2%)	2mo	$341,040	$178	73
3000 Duskshine Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+4%)	4mo	$336,990	$167	68
3100 Duskshine Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+4%)	1mo	$248,991	$124	67
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (+12%)	3mo	$324,990	$150	64
1084 Sunlit Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (+4%)	3mo	$309,900	$154	62
1113 Sunlit Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-6%)	4mo	$313,990	$172	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-82,594
• Equity at exit: $49,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-127,490
• Equity at exit: $28,783

Cash invested: $93,211 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,890 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,993/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,912

Max offer price $284,274

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-221	+0% $-336	+5% $-451	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-434	+0% $-336	+5% $-238	+10% $-140
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-251	base $-336	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,224
• Closing costs: $9,987
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $305,990 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $305,990 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $305,990 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $305,990 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $305,990 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $305,990 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $305,990 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $305,990 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $305,990 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $305,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $305,990 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $305,990 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $305,990 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $310,990 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $310,990 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $310,990 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $310,990 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $310,990 Active 189 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $310,990 Active 188 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $310,990 Active 187 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $310,990 Active 186 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $310,990 Active 185 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $310,990 Active 184 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $310,990 Active 183 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $310,990 Active 182 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $310,990 Active 181 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $310,990 Active 180 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $310,990 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $310,990 Active 178 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $310,990 Active 177 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $310,990 Active 176 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $310,990 Active 175 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $310,990 Active 174 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $310,990 Active 173 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $310,990 Active 172 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $310,990 Active 171 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $310,990 Active 170 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $310,990 Active 169 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $310,990 Active 168 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $310,990 Active 166 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $310,990 Active 165 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $310,990 Active 164 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $310,990 Active 163 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $310,990 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $310,990 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $310,990 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $310,990 Active 155 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $310,990 Active 153 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,990 Active 152 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $310,990 Active 151 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,647
• − Property taxes: −$4,993
• − Insurance: −$1,664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − Depreciation: −$9,684
• Taxable loss: −$9,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home with a modern floor plan and well-maintained exterior is move-in ready and offers a good return on investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value for potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $310,990 Zillow