3507 San Rafael Rd · Mila Doce, TX 78570

$108,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily · 230 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.71 ac lot $97/sqft · 24% below area Est $143k · 24% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

Key facts

• Complete fenced
• Lots of land
• Mature trees

Tags

• MATURE TREES
• COMPLETE FENCED
• LOTS OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,495 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($747 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.90%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,915
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: -24.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $37,898
• Equity at exit: $58,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $102,335
• Equity at exit: $97,833

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $108,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $108,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

16. 2026-02-20
    price $118,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

17. 2026-01-08
    price $125,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

18. 2025-10-27
    listed $138,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $1,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$325
• After-tax cash flow: $2,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home is a fixer-upper with moderate rehabilitation needs, offering potential for significant value appreciation through updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior paint — Weathered siding needs repainting for a fresh look.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Wooden cabinets could be refinished or replaced for a more modern look.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Basic fixtures could be updated for a more modern aesthetic.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value.
• Resale Updating kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Updating bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathroom can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Weathered siding needs repainting for a fresh look.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen cabinets · Wooden cabinets could be refinished or replaced for a more modern look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Basic fixtures could be updated for a more modern aesthetic.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale Updating kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Updating bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathroom can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mila Doce

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1495
• US rank: #25524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $108,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $118,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $138,000 MCALLENMLS