3507 San Rafael Rd · Mercedes, TX 78570

$98,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily · 365 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.71 ac lot $88/sqft · 46% below area Est $182k · 46% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Property DONT MISS OUT. .70 Acres fixer upper home 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom, mature trees. lots of land if you'll like to build your dream home or a Ranchito. home needs work, Property is complete fenced, motivated seller.

Key facts

• Complete fenced
• Lots of land
• Mature trees

Tags

• MATURE TREES
• COMPLETE FENCED
• LOTS OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jorge R Gutierrez Early Childhood Center (432 students, 96% FRL); Carlos Truan J H (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,579 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 622 students, 93% FRL); Edcouch-Elsa H S (math 7% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,501 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,345 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 74% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 544 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.21%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,862
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: -46.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9908 Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-3%)	42mo	$147,000	$136	53
3811 Siesta Ave	1.56mi	3/1.0	1,132 (+2%)	40mo	$73,000	$64	42
705 Palo Verde St	1.79mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	7mo	$110,000	$90	40
6714 E St	1.75mi	5/3.0 (+2)	1,056 (-5%)	7mo	$140,000	$133	33
15915 Mile 2 W	1.04mi	3/1.0	975 (-12%)	35mo	$165,000	$169	25
13821 Magdalena St	1.90mi	4/1.0 (+1)	885 (-20%)	14mo	$220,000	$249	24
7935 Mile 15 N	1.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+8%)	25mo	$199,000	$166	22
7914 Eden St	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+24%)	18mo	$226,000	$164	21
2227 E Mile 12 N	1.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	55mo	$60,000	$61	20
8403 Irene Dr	1.95mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+22%)	22mo	$225,000	$167	18
7506 N Canuck St	1.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-19%)	51mo	$110,000	$122	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $39,210
• Equity at exit: $52,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $103,271
• Equity at exit: $88,774

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 544
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $336	+0% $302	+5% $268	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $253	+0% $302	+5% $351	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $327	base $302	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-31
   days on market $98,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-10-31
   days on market $98,000 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-10-29
   days on market $98,000 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-10-28
   days on market $98,000 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-10-27
   days on market $98,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-10-26
   days on market $98,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-10-25
   days on market $98,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-10-24
   days on market $98,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-10-23
   days on market $98,000 Active 357 DOM
10. 2026-10-22
    days on market $98,000 Active 356 DOM
11. 2026-10-21
    days on market $98,000 Active 355 DOM
12. 2026-10-20
    days on market $98,000 Active 354 DOM
13. 2026-10-19
    days on market $98,000 Active 353 DOM
14. 2026-10-18
    days on market $98,000 Active 352 DOM
15. 2026-10-17
    days on market $98,000 Active 351 DOM
16. 2026-10-16
    days on market $98,000 Active 350 DOM
17. 2026-10-15
    days on market $98,000 Active 349 DOM
18. 2026-10-14
    days on market $98,000 Active 348 DOM
19. 2026-10-13
    days on market $98,000 Active 347 DOM
20. 2026-10-12
    days on market $98,000 Active 346 DOM
21. 2026-10-11
    days on market $98,000 Active 345 DOM
22. 2026-10-10
    days on market $98,000 Active 344 DOM
23. 2026-10-09
    days on market $98,000 Active 343 DOM
24. 2026-10-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 342 DOM
25. 2026-10-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 341 DOM
26. 2026-10-06
    days on market $98,000 Active 340 DOM
27. 2026-10-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 339 DOM
28. 2026-10-04
    days on market $98,000 Active 338 DOM
29. 2026-10-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 337 DOM
30. 2026-10-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 336 DOM
31. 2026-10-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 335 DOM
32. 2026-09-30
    days on market $98,000 Active 334 DOM
33. 2026-09-29
    days on market $98,000 Active 333 DOM
34. 2026-09-28
    days on market $98,000 Active 332 DOM
35. 2026-09-27
    days on market $98,000 Active 331 DOM
36. 2026-09-26
    days on market $98,000 Active 330 DOM
37. 2026-09-25
    days on market $98,000 Active 329 DOM
38. 2026-09-24
    days on market $98,000 Active 328 DOM
39. 2026-09-23
    days on market $98,000 Active 327 DOM
40. 2026-09-21
    days on market $98,000 Active 325 DOM
41. 2026-09-20
    days on market $98,000 Active 324 DOM
42. 2026-09-19
    days on market $98,000 Active 322 DOM
43. 2026-09-17
    days on market $98,000 Active 321 DOM
44. 2026-09-17
    days on market $98,000 Active 320 DOM
45. 2026-09-16
    days on market $98,000 Active 319 DOM
46. 2026-09-14
    days on market $98,000 Active 318 DOM
47. 2026-09-13
    days on market $98,000 Active 317 DOM
48. 2026-09-12
    days on market $98,000 Active 316 DOM
49. 2026-09-11
    days on market $98,000 Active 315 DOM
50. 2026-09-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 309 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $2,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $27,750–$49,950 screening

This home is a fixer-upper with moderate rehabilitation needs, offering potential for significant value appreciation through updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior paint — Weathered siding needs repainting for a fresh look.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Wooden cabinets could be refinished or replaced for a more modern look.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Basic fixtures could be updated for a more modern aesthetic.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale Updating kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Updating bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathroom can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Santiago Garcia El F TX #4,048/4,322 Nat'l #36,758/41,679 Middle David Ybarra Fine Arts Academy F TX #1,646/1,662 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Edcouch-Elsa H S F TX #1,501/1,632 Nat'l #15,203/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo · 955,232 people
• City population: 33,596
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,596
• Household income: $39,890
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $108,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $118,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $138,000 MCALLENMLS