Ruby Plan · Captains Cove, VA 23356

$344,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you walk in the first floor is an expansive, open floorplan of the Choice Room, Great Room, Breakfast Nook, and kitchen. The openness of these areas offers plenty of space and ease for informal dining and entertaining. The choice room has the option of substituting it with a private library that can be used as a home office or playroom. The Kitchen has a tremendous amount of space, plenty of cabinets, and a deep pantry, making storage plentiful and organization easy. Add to the Kitchen's counter space and cabinet storage with an optional kitchen island. As you climb up the stairs to the second floor you find a generous Owner's Suite with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with a large shower, double vanity, and private water closet. The Owner's Suite shares the level with three additional bedrooms, a laundry room, a full hall bath, and a large loft area. The loft area may be optionally converted to a fifth bedroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE LIBRARY OPTION
• DEEP PANTRY
• OPTIONAL KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $344,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $484,913.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.5% in Captains Cove — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,330 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.44%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,913
• List price: $344,990
• Delta: -28.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37146 Shark Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,295 (+4%)	7mo	$454,975	$198	79
37369 Keel Ct	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+4%)	11mo	$730,000	$317	64
3488 Navigator Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	5mo	$410,000	$205	63
3047 Dinghy Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,314 (+4%)	2mo	$412,000	$178	62
3175 Port Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,440 (+10%)	5mo	$250,000	$102	62
3207 Amidship Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,217 (0%)	12mo	$386,029	$174	62
37116 Shark Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-13%)	12mo	$340,000	$176	55
2486 Dry Dock Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,060 (-7%)	8mo	$333,187	$162	53
37424 Bayside Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,976 (-11%)	3mo	$654,900	$331	52
37430 Bayside Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,076 (-6%)	8mo	$720,000	$347	50
3120 Amidship Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,911 (-14%)	15mo	$310,000	$162	35
3142 Amidship Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (-14%)	12mo	$379,888	$198	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-89,386
• Equity at exit: $171,496

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-113,707
• Equity at exit: $232,580

Cash invested: $135,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23356

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,274/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-1,634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,242

Max offer price $248,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,299	-5% $-1,467	+0% $-1,634	+5% $-1,802	+10% $-1,969
Rent	-10% $-1,806	-5% $-1,720	+0% $-1,634	+5% $-1,548	+10% $-1,463
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,390	-0.5pp $-1,511	base $-1,634	+0.5pp $-1,760	+1.0pp $-1,888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,228
• Closing costs: $14,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38019 Fathom Rd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.69mi
4155 Captains Corridor Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.5	2380	$2,400	$1.01	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $344,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,990 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,990 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,990 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,990 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,990 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $344,990 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,990 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,990 Active 381 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,990 Active 380 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,990 Active 379 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,990 Active 373 DOM
17. 2025-05-23
    listed $344,990 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    As you walk in the first floor is an expansive, open floorplan of the Choice Room, Great Room, Breakfast Nook, and kitchen. The openness of these areas offers plenty of space and ease for informal dining and entertaining. The choice room has the option of substituting it with a private library that can be used as a home office or playroom. The Kitchen has a tremendous amount of space, plenty of cabinets, and a deep pantry, making storage plentiful and organization easy. Add to the Kitchen's counter space and cabinet storage with an optional kitchen island. As you climb up the stairs to the second floor you find a generous Owner's Suite with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with a large shower, double vanity, and private water closet. The Owner's Suite shares the level with three additional bedrooms, a laundry room, a full hall bath, and a large loft area. The loft area may be optionally converted to a fifth bedroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,163
• − Property taxes: −$7,274
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$14,107
• Taxable loss: −$29,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Captains Cove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #14910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Captains Cove, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,738

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 191.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $344,990 Zillow