6700 81st Ave SE · Mercer Island, WA 98040

$1,950,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1977 0.35 ac lot $771/sqft · 18% below area Est $2380k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect blend of Mid-Century charm and modern updates in this stunning Mercer Island home. Bamboo floors flow seamlessly through open-concept living spaces, while skylights and expansive windows fill the home with warm, natural light. Thoughtfully designed with 4 bedrooms and 3 baths, this home offers both comfort and flexibility for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a beautifully terraced backyard—your own private Pacific Northwest retreat. Surrounded by lush native plantings, the outdoor space features a relaxing hot tub, a covered entertaining area for year-round gatherings, and a greenhouse for garden enthusiasts. Inside, enjoy year-round comfort wit

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electric and natural gas service; PSE power provider; Xfinity cable; Xfinity internet
• Home design: Single family residence; Split entry / multi-level; House structure; Faces west; Built on lot; Very good condition; Has a view; Split entry entry location
• Construction: Built (effective) 1977; Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Patio; Fenced — fully; Cabana / gazebo; Greenhouse; High-speed internet available; Cable TV available; Hot tub / spa; Gas available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove / Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 3 bedrooms on the main level; 1 bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Bamboo or cork flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 three-quarter bathrooms; 2 showers; 1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining room; Fireplace; Hot tub / spa; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-71k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $899k (53.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $757k (61.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $757k (61.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.0% in Mercer Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#154 in WA, #3,481 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Mercer Island School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #1 of 291 in WA (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mercer Island High School (1,524 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($219k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $-5k appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$113k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.89M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $248k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $980k; list at $1.95M implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $757,073 (61.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.08%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 21.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,379,865
• List price: $1,950,000
• Delta: -18.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6730 82nd Ave SE	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,600 (+3%)	11mo	$2,399,000	$923	75
8320 SE 62nd St	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,350 (-7%)	0mo	$2,350,000	$1,000	67
8407 SE 69th Pl	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,350 (-7%)	7mo	$2,190,000	$932	65
8804 SE 62nd St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,560 (+1%)	12mo	$1,830,000	$715	56
7231 91st Pl SE	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,380 (-6%)	1mo	$1,850,000	$777	53
7834 SE 75th Pl	0.51mi	3/3.5	2,255 (-11%)	12mo	$2,250,000	$998	46
8812 SE 74th Pl	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,410 (-5%)	14mo	$2,395,000	$994	44
7215 76th Ave SE	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,271 (-10%)	12mo	$1,700,000	$749	43
8904 SE 58th St	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,800 (+11%)	4mo	$2,800,000	$1,000	41
8010 SE 60th St	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,160 (-15%)	14mo	$1,995,000	$924	40
5320 Lansdowne Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,650 (+5%)	13mo	$2,750,000	$1,038	39
7760 81st Pl SE	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,867 (+13%)	12mo	$2,925,000	$1,020	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-478,269
• Equity at exit: $541,503

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-748,923
• Equity at exit: $631,503

Cash invested: $546,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98040

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 21.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax from tax record: −$893 /mo · $10,719/yr
• Insurance: −$812
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,590
• Net cashflow: $-5,951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,103

Max offer price $898,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,847	-5% $-5,399	+0% $-5,951	+5% $-6,503	+10% $-7,055
Rent	-10% $-6,549	-5% $-6,250	+0% $-5,951	+5% $-5,652	+10% $-5,353
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,969	-0.5pp $-5,455	base $-5,951	+0.5pp $-6,456	+1.0pp $-6,970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $487,500
• Closing costs: $58,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6225 77th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	3.0	3.5	3030	$10,000	$3.30	25d	1	0.35mi
4701 84th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	4.0	2.5	2945	$7,500	$2.55	0d	1	1.31mi
4255 Williams Ave N Renton, WA	3.0	1.5	2860	$8,995	$3.15	4d	1	1.49mi
4255 Williams Ave N Renton, WA	3.0	1.5	2860	$8,995	$3.15	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $2,098,000
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $2,198,000 Active
17. 2016-06-28
    soldstatus $980,000 Sold
18. 2016-06-28
    soldstatus $980,000
19. 2016-05-18
    status Pending
20. 2016-05-11
    listed $980,000 Active
21. 2006-02-14
    soldstatus $740,000 Closed
22. 2006-02-14
    soldstatus $740,000
23. 2006-01-24
    historical
24. 2005-12-13
    price $764,950
25. 2005-09-12
    listed $789,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,719 · $893/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,110 · $1,592/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,391/yr (+$699/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$109,230
• − Property taxes: −$10,719
• − Insurance: −$9,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,268
• − Management: −$7,268
• − Depreciation: −$56,727
• Taxable loss: −$110,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$26,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-44,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercer Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5304980
• Math proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $124,902
• Composite: 79.53/100
• National rank: #97
• State rank: #1 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mercer Island

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #3481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercer Island, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 25,307
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 25,307
• Household income: $219,069
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 22% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 323.6615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+147.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $1,950,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $2,098,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $2,198,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $980,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-28 Sold (MLS) $980,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-11 Listed $980,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $740,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-14 Sold (MLS) $740,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-24 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-13 Price Changed $764,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-12 Listed $789,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,719 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.