5029 Sim Cotton St · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in walking distance of Cumberland Mills Elementary School. Galley kitchen w/ range, refrigerator, dw, microwave. Open living / dining with hardwood laminate floors and fireplace. Split bedrooms. Single car garage, large fenced back yard with deck and outside storage. Property is being sold in "as is" condition.

Key facts

• Outside storage
• Galley kitchen
• Deck

Tags

• GALLEY KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORS
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD
• DECK
• OUTSIDE STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered/garage space)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank / holding tank sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Subdivision: CUMBERLAND O
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Storage; Window coverings and blinds; Has fireplace in the great room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $150k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,851
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2601 Quail Forest Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-4%)	14mo	$195,000	$191	68
5924 Lively Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+3%)	10mo	$211,995	$192	66
2510 Silverbell Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,086 (+1%)	13mo	$200,000	$184	64
2613 Sedgefield Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,098 (+2%)	1mo	$199,000	$181	60
2928 Chillingworth Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,131 (+6%)	5mo	$209,900	$186	60
5931 Hotspur Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+8%)	8mo	$204,000	$176	52
3202 Periwinkle Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+3%)	16mo	$164,900	$150	52
2527 Painters Mill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+9%)	12mo	$190,000	$162	49
2527 Silverbell Loop	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	14mo	$227,100	$187	46
5575 Windy Knoll Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,164 (+9%)	16mo	$197,000	$169	44
2637 Wingate Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	912 (-15%)	8mo	$165,000	$181	38
2607 Wingate Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+14%)	15mo	$140,000	$115	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,666
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,731
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,405/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	0.44mi
2543 Painters Mill Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,600	$1.39	14d	1	0.51mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	14d	1	0.54mi
2161 Bingham Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	14d	1	0.55mi
5595 Quietwood Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,395	$1.08	23d	1	0.58mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	23d	1	0.60mi
2935 Chillingworth Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,750	$1.25	14d	1	0.61mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	23d	1	0.72mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	23d	1	0.83mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	14d	1	0.83mi
2640 Latrobe Ave Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,815	$1.68	14d	30	0.91mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	1.09mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	1.09mi
2920 Cosmo Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,505	$1.64	14d	9	1.14mi
1761 Renwick Dr #204 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1331	$1,300	$0.98	14d	1	1.22mi
1811 Balmoral Dr #202 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,275	$1.02	14d	1	1.24mi
1800 Balmoral Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1328	$1,250	$0.94	23d	1	1.26mi
5721 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,575	$1.50	23d	1	1.27mi
5744 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,395	$1.19	23d	1	1.29mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	1.32mi
2012 Lakemeadow Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,800	$1.35	14d	1	1.33mi
1701 Carter Baron Pl Unit 211 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	1.46mi
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	23d	1	1.46mi
1879 Frankie Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    status Active
17. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-20
    status Active
19. 2026-03-16
    status Pending
20. 2026-03-11
    listed $160,000 Active
21. 2008-05-27
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,405
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $3,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+79.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $160,000 LPRMLS
• 2008-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,405 · +42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.