85 Carlyle Ave · Buffalo, NY 14220

$299,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1924 0.26 ac lot $129/sqft · 40% below area Est $498k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, original woodwork and hardwood floors throughout this 3/3 double that sits on a double lot with a 2.5 garage! Kitchens are updated and include appliances. Very nice bathrooms in both units have been totally updated. Formal dining rooms open to large living rooms that have original fireplaces w/ built-in shelving. Lots of extra space in the full walk-up attic! Garage & porch roofs were redone, as well as flashing on the main roof. Two forced air furnaces, new HWT's, & 100 amp panels. Enjoy the summers on tlarge front porch while having plenty of garage space and off-street parking!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Significant yard
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• NEWER BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• SIGNIFICANT YARD
• GOOD SIZED LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DEVELOPED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include insurance and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached/accessible paved parking with two or more spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: 2-story multi-family building; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Near public transit; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen in each unit; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units (each with living room, formal dining room, eat-in kitchen)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (total 2 full bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Natural woodwork; Full basement; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas meters (2); Separate electric meters (2)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,885/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $300k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $288,500 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,096
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -39.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Carlyle Ave	0.08mi	6/2.0	2,334 (+0%)	20mo	$300,000	$129	80
92 Carlyle Ave	0.03mi	6/3.0	2,140 (-8%)	9mo	$260,000	$121	74
125 Brookside Dr #127	0.17mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (-8%)	2mo	$265,000	$124	72
167 Hollywood Ave	0.35mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,291 (-2%)	15mo	$299,900	$131	63
145 Whitehall Ave	0.31mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,276 (-2%)	21mo	$240,000	$105	59
442 Dorrance Ave	0.27mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,173 (-7%)	20mo	$340,000	$156	50
281 Woodside Ave	0.67mi	6/2.0	2,558 (+10%)	11mo	$265,000	$104	44
149 Ramona Ave	0.48mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,202 (-6%)	24mo	$250,000	$114	44
41 Leonard St	0.72mi	6/2.0	2,056 (-12%)	20mo	$175,000	$85	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,973
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $101,080
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 78%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,884
Total (2 units)			$2,885

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $299,900 Active 875-char remark
2. 2015-04-24
   soldstatus $150,000 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Beautiful, original woodwork and hardwood floors throughout this 3/3 double that sits on a double lot with a 2.5 garage! Kitchens are updated and include appliances. Very nice bathrooms in both units have been totally updated. Formal dining rooms open to large living rooms that have original fireplaces w/ built-in shelving. Lots of extra space in the full walk-up attic! Garage & porch roofs were redone, as well as flashing on the main roof. Two forced air furnaces, new HWT's, & 100 amp panels. Enjoy the summers on tlarge front porch while having plenty of garage space and off-street parking!

3. 2015-04-24
   soldstatus $150,000

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Beautiful, original woodwork and hardwood floors throughout this 3/3 double that sits on a double lot with a 2.5 garage! Kitchens are updated and include appliances. Very nice bathrooms in both units have been totally updated. Formal dining rooms open to large living rooms that have original fireplaces w/ built-in shelving. Lots of extra space in the full walk-up attic! Garage & porch roofs were redone, as well as flashing on the main roof. Two forced air furnaces, new HWT's, & 100 amp panels. Enjoy the summers on tlarge front porch while having plenty of garage space and off-street parking!

4. 2015-02-28
   listed $139,900 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Beautiful, original woodwork and hardwood floors throughout this 3/3 double that sits on a double lot with a 2.5 garage! Kitchens are updated and include appliances. Very nice bathrooms in both units have been totally updated. Formal dining rooms open to large living rooms that have original fireplaces w/ built-in shelving. Lots of extra space in the full walk-up attic! Garage & porch roofs were redone, as well as flashing on the main roof. Two forced air furnaces, new HWT's, & 100 amp panels. Enjoy the summers on tlarge front porch while having plenty of garage space and off-street parking!

5. 2006-07-17
   soldstatus $101,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,034 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,034/yr (+$169/mo · 203.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $1,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $5,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+48.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2015-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-24 Sold (MLS) $150,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-02-28 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2006-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $101,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.