430 Chestnut Rd · South Lockport, NY 14094

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

STUNNING 2023 built home loaded with tasteful features throughout! This beautifully appointed Eagle River offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a bright, open layout ideal for modern living. Step inside to an attractive, open-concept eat-in kitchen with a large island/breakfast bar, recessed lighting, and sleek black appliances flowing seamlessly into the spacious living area. Deluxe crown molding throughout! The primary suite is privately tucked away in the rear with a full bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Two generously sized bedrooms and an additional full bath at the front offer flexibility and comfort. Enjoy a fully fenced in yard, custom Amish built 10x10 shed for added storage wi

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND BREAKFAST BAR
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $855
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double-wide mobile home (Eagle River model); Existing/resale property; Faces city street
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Covered porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Kitchen-family room combo; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary/bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,568
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6408 Locust Street Ext	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-2%)	12mo	$400,000	$282	60
6406 Locust Street Ext	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+2%)	23mo	$300,000	$203	53
6170 Old Beattie Rd	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,641 (+13%)	4mo	$249,900	$152	51
6344 Green Valley Ln	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$323,000	$207	50
1163 Timberwood Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-12%)	18mo	$69,900	$54	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $859
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $30,885
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	1d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $124,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $124,900 Active
7. 2022-12-22
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2023-built single-family home is in excellent condition with tasteful features and a bright, open layout. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and minor touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-22 Rental Removed — RENT.