433 Pine St · Elmira, NY 14904

$13,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1900 5,400 sqft lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Two-unit property being sold as-is and in need of repairs. The property has been vacant for an extended period and the current condition of the home is unknown. Buyer should perform all due diligence. The property is known to have periodic visitors; therefore, for safety purposes, all showings must be conducted with a minimum of two people present. Exercise caution when entering the property

Key facts

• 5,400 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $13k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $13k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 88.8% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $90 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $390 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $12,805 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 88.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 294.76%
• DSCR: 14.12
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,304
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 Pine St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,798 (0%)	1mo	$25,000	$14	99
336 Broadway St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,957 (+9%)	12mo	$93,100	$48	57
707 Southport St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,042 (+14%)	7mo	$80,000	$39	48
239 Mount Zoar St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,045 (+14%)	6mo	$100,000	$49	47
458 Beecher St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (-14%)	16mo	$94,000	$61	36
463 Frank St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-8%)	20mo	$118,000	$71	35
455 Frank St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-8%)	21mo	$42,000	$25	32
202 Franklin	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,052 (+14%)	22mo	$30,000	$15	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.07×
• Total profit: $54,858
• Equity at exit: $1,938

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.29×
• Total profit: $121,172
• Equity at exit: $1,124

Cash invested: $3,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $195/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $894

Break-even live

Break-even rent $114

Max offer price $13,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,250
• Closing costs: $390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	43d	1	0.48mi
160 Boardman St Unit B Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1727	$800	$0.46	43d	1	0.65mi
715 W Water St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	2246	$1,100	$0.49	43d	1	0.67mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	43d	1	0.86mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	43d	1	0.94mi
357 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.5	1650	$1,500	$0.91	43d	1	1.13mi
355 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	43d	1	1.14mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.15mi
1210 W Water St Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,995	$1.49	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $13,000
3. 2026-03-07
   listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$728
• − Property taxes: −$195
• − Insurance: −$65
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$378
• Taxable income: $11,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,685
• After-tax cash flow: $8,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $13,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $20,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,910 · -15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.