111 Vela St SW · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$299,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,462 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1972 0.38 ac lot $205/sqft · 24% below area Est $396k · 24% under ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect Opportunity To Make This Home Your Own, Near the Beach! Bring your ideas and make this beach home your own! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers 1,462 sq ft of living space filled with natural light from expansive windows that create a bright, welcoming coastal feel. Two bedrooms are located on the main level—one with convenient access to the laundry area and garage, one with a sliding glass door to the back yard. The upstairs bedroom features dual closets, a half bath with laundry hookups, and its own private exterior entry, offering flexibility for guests or potential separate living space. The oversized garage includes a workshop area plus a finished upper-level flex space

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Expansive windows
• Second lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• PRIVATE EXTERIOR ENTRY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SECOND LOT
• CORNER-TO-CORNER PROPERTY
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,751 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,040
• List price: $299,950
• Delta: -24.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Cygnus Ave SW	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-1%)	0mo	$420,400	$289	90
401 Canal Dr SE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$530,000	$368	88
457 Centaurus Ave SW	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$222	84
471 Kloshe Ct SE	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+2%)	1mo	$370,000	$248	80
141 Taurus Blvd SW	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-3%)	4mo	$464,900	$328	78
465 Centaurus Ave SW	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-6%)	4mo	$335,000	$243	78
219 S Oar Loop SW	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	4mo	$387,000	$258	68
317 Sand Dune Ave SW	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-5%)	1mo	$450,000	$324	65
544 Makah Ave SE	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+5%)	2mo	$309,900	$202	65
434 Snahapish Ave SE	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	2mo	$329,000	$255	59
367 Eridani Loop SE	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,256 (-14%)	3mo	$290,000	$231	51
241 Ocean Shores Blvd SW	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-13%)	4mo	$434,950	$344	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,526
• Equity at exit: $44,724

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,348
• Equity at exit: $25,934

Cash invested: $83,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,342

Max offer price $267,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-101	+0% $-186	+5% $-270	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-269	+0% $-186	+5% $-102	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-109	base $-186	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,988
• Closing costs: $8,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
677 Lake Island Ave SE Ocean Shores, WA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,600	$1.92	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,950 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,950 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,950 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,950 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,950 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,950 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,950 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,950 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,950 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,950 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,950 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,950 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,950 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,950 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,950 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,950 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $299,950
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,109/yr (+$92/mo · 60.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,802
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$8,726
• Taxable loss: −$7,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,827
• After-tax cash flow: $-399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $305,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,830 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.