2779 Ivan · Hamilton, MI 48625

$82,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 486 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1959

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy knotty pine cabin. New septic field in 2024. New well pump 2026. Very well built and cared for! I still have records for all repairs and updates since built! Perfect location for up north weekend fun with access to several lakes within walking distance. Thousands of acres of state land for hunting/ and trails. Wilson state park in center of Harrison 4 miles away. Yard backs up to several acres so very peaceful at night, yet stores for most needs also walking distance. I have several storage sheds for up north toys! one large enough to store mid size boat. Very cozy screened porch by fire pit in back yard. this was a two bedroom but last owners turned bedroom into large storage closet

Key facts

• New well pump
• Screened porch
• Fire pit

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC FIELD
• NEW WELL PUMP
• ACCESS TO SEVERAL LAKES
• STORAGE SHEDS
• SCREENED PORCH
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $77k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $82k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,348 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-5,148
• Equity at exit: $12,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,984
• Equity at exit: $7,133

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $171/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $82,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $171 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 320.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$171
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$743
• − Management: −$743
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hamilton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+175.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $82,500 FSBO.com
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $86,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $88,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-25 Listed $43,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-07-16 Sold (MLS) $26,000 WWMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-05-29 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $171 · -76.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.