1 Marlin Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,799,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1956 8,712 sqft lot $775/sqft · 9% above area Est $1658k · 9% over $100/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched in the idyllic waterfront enclave of Shinnecock Shores in East Quogue, this charming canal-front retreat embodies the very best of coastal living. With five bedrooms and two full baths, this home is designed to accommodate friends with ease, offering ample space to unwind and soak in the peaceful surroundings. Inside, you’ll find a warm, welcoming living room, a den bathed in natural light, and an inviting eat-in kitchen that’s just right for enjoying intimate meals. The oversized en-suite bedroom is a true haven, offering a private retreat at the end of the day. Some recent upgrades including a new roof, new siding, new front portico, garage door and all new interior doors and flooring—blending style with modern convenience. Step outside, and you’ll discover the heart of this property’s charm. Set on a meticulously landscaped lot, the outdoor space features a brand-new patio, fencing and walkway—all designed to elevate your outdoor experience. For boating enthusiasts, this is paradise: a private boat slip, fully renovated boat dock, outdoor shower and spacious deck overlooking the sparkling canal. This isn’t just a home—it’s a lifestyle. Whether you’re launching your next adventure from your backyard dock, enjoying the private beaches of Shinnecock Shores, or simply reveling in the tranquility of waterfront living, this is your chance to claim a piece of paradise. Don’t let it slip away!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.53M (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $975k; list at $1.80M implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,526,416 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,657,754
• List price: $1,799,000
• Delta: 8.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Osprey Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (-5%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$773	62
34 Shinnecock Rd	0.24mi	5/3.0	2,575 (+11%)	18mo	$1,550,000	$602	51
7 Washington Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (-11%)	13mo	$1,100,000	$534	43
2 Canvasback Ln	0.62mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,276 (-2%)	16mo	$1,200,000	$527	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-212,982
• Equity at exit: $268,237

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-86,458
• Equity at exit: $155,545

Cash invested: $503,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,434
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,359/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,205
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,688

Max offer price $1,799,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,263	-5% $1,754	+0% $1,245	+5% $736	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $642	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,848	+10% $2,451
Rate	-1.0pp $2,151	-0.5pp $1,703	base $1,245	+0.5pp $779	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $449,750
• Closing costs: $53,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Whiting Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2296	$60,000	$26.13	23d	1	0.20mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	23d	1	0.28mi
4 Landing Ln East Quogue, NY	6.0	4.5	3000	$50,000	$16.67	23d	1	0.51mi
26 Squires Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2950	$7,000	$2.37	45d	1	0.75mi
10 Foxboro Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2308	$17,000	$7.37	45d	1	0.78mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$17,000	$6.30	26d	1	0.82mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	26d	1	0.95mi
19 Pine Tree Ln East Quogue, NY	6.0	5.0	2872	$23,000	$8.01	0d	1	1.17mi
36 Walker Ave East Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$23,000	$9.20	9d	1	1.22mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	7d	1	1.24mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	19d	1	1.24mi
3 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2673	$5,000	$1.87	45d	1	1.26mi
2 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2280	$80,000	$35.09	23d	1	1.26mi
4 Aerie Way East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	17d	1	1.27mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	45d	1	1.30mi
21 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$14,000	$4.83	45d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

   Perched in the idyllic waterfront enclave of Shinnecock Shores in East Quogue, this charming canal-front retreat embodies the very best of coastal living. With five bedrooms and two full baths, this home is designed to accommodate friends with ease, offering ample space to unwind and soak in the peaceful surroundings. Inside, you’ll find a warm, welcoming living room, a den bathed in natural light, and an inviting eat-in kitchen that’s just right for enjoying intimate meals. The oversized en-suite bedroom is a true haven, offering a private retreat at the end of the day. Some recent upgrades including a new roof, new siding, new front portico, garage door and all new interior doors and flooring—blending style with modern convenience. Step outside, and you’ll discover the heart of this property’s charm. Set on a meticulously landscaped lot, the outdoor space features a brand-new patio, fencing and walkway—all designed to elevate your outdoor experience. For boating enthusiasts, this is paradise: a private boat slip, fully renovated boat dock, outdoor shower and spacious deck overlooking the sparkling canal. This isn’t just a home—it’s a lifestyle. Whether you’re launching your next adventure from your backyard dock, enjoying the private beaches of Shinnecock Shores, or simply reveling in the tranquility of waterfront living, this is your chance to claim a piece of paradise. Don’t let it slip away!

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $1,799,000 Active 1486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

   Perched in the idyllic waterfront enclave of Shinnecock Shores in East Quogue, this charming canal-front retreat embodies the very best of coastal living. With five bedrooms and two full baths, this home is designed to accommodate friends with ease, offering ample space to unwind and soak in the peaceful surroundings. Inside, you’ll find a warm, welcoming living room, a den bathed in natural light, and an inviting eat-in kitchen that’s just right for enjoying intimate meals. The oversized en-suite bedroom is a true haven, offering a private retreat at the end of the day. Some recent upgrades including a new roof, new siding, new front portico, garage door and all new interior doors and flooring—blending style with modern convenience. Step outside, and you’ll discover the heart of this property’s charm. Set on a meticulously landscaped lot, the outdoor space features a brand-new patio, fencing and walkway—all designed to elevate your outdoor experience. For boating enthusiasts, this is paradise: a private boat slip, fully renovated boat dock, outdoor shower and spacious deck overlooking the sparkling canal. This isn’t just a home—it’s a lifestyle. Whether you’re launching your next adventure from your backyard dock, enjoying the private beaches of Shinnecock Shores, or simply reveling in the tranquility of waterfront living, this is your chance to claim a piece of paradise. Don’t let it slip away!

3. 2024-06-11
   soldstatus $975,000
4. 2024-05-22
   soldstatus $975,000 Closed 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   WATERFRONT Expanded 5 bedroom Colonial with dock in Shinnecock Shores at the end of a Canal. Full dry basement with access to garage and interior of house. The bulkhead has been renovated 2003 with a storage facility for boating and seasonal equipment. Great summer home or year round home in the Shinnecock Community HOA dues $750 a year.

5. 2024-03-29
   status Pending 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   WATERFRONT Expanded 5 bedroom Colonial with dock in Shinnecock Shores at the end of a Canal. Full dry basement with access to garage and interior of house. The bulkhead has been renovated 2003 with a storage facility for boating and seasonal equipment. Great summer home or year round home in the Shinnecock Community HOA dues $750 a year.

6. 2023-11-01
   listed $999,999 Active 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   WATERFRONT Expanded 5 bedroom Colonial with dock in Shinnecock Shores at the end of a Canal. Full dry basement with access to garage and interior of house. The bulkhead has been renovated 2003 with a storage facility for boating and seasonal equipment. Great summer home or year round home in the Shinnecock Community HOA dues $750 a year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,359 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,381 · $1,532/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,022/yr (+$1,002/mo · 189.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,772
• − Property taxes: −$6,359
• − Insurance: −$8,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,654
• − Management: −$14,654
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$52,335
• Taxable loss: −$15,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,791
• After-tax cash flow: $18,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+79.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $975,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-22 Sold (MLS) $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Listed $999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,359 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.