918 S Brazos St · Lockhart, TX 78644

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1945 10,685 sqft lot $91/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper or tear down just a 5 minute walk from downtown. Amazing proximity to HEB, shops, and BBQ! House is in very poor condition, need either a major remodel or great for a new build. Lot is 0.25 acres, many new construction projects in the area!

Key facts

• Proximity to heb
• 5 minute walk
• 0.25 acres

Tags

• 5 MINUTE WALK
• PROXIMITY TO HEB
• 0.25 ACRES
• NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.61%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,656
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -54.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 S Commerce St	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,090 (+5%)	8mo	$180,000	$165	71
902 Chihuahua St	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	7mo	$259,900	$260	71
810 Mora St	0.25mi	2/2.0	969 (-7%)	7mo	$209,900	$217	67
905 Luann Ln	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,089 (+5%)	6mo	$119,000	$109	66
721 Chihuahua St	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	11mo	$255,000	$255	64
904 Chihuahua St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (+3%)	12mo	$284,900	$267	64
1409 4th St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,062 (+2%)	6mo	$219,000	$206	60
1007 4th St	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+8%)	21mo	$275,000	$244	53
712 Neches St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	7mo	$80,000	$69	51
601 Clearfork St	0.70mi	2/1.0	967 (-7%)	8mo	$134,500	$139	49
609 Neches St	0.42mi	2/1.0	926 (-11%)	21mo	$194,500	$210	45
67 Trinity Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+14%)	21mo	$214,720	$181	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $17,962
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $58,666
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,504/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,595	$1.09	2d	1	0.10mi
67 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1253	$1,700	$1.36	24d	1	0.12mi
61 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	4d	1	0.13mi
609 Cottonwood St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1084	$1,295	$1.19	43d	1	0.20mi
750 S Main St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.23mi
908 S Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	43d	1	0.39mi
703 San Saba St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$1,700	$2.09	4d	1	0.40mi
1001 Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,061	$1.23	1d	1	0.43mi
1204 Blackjack St Unit B Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.49mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	0.60mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.60mi
1510 S Medina St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	0.71mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.72mi
1010 Crockett St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.5	1140	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	0.76mi
1010 Crockett St Lockhart, TX	2.0	3.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	20d	1	0.76mi
115 S Frio St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	4d	1	0.91mi
115 S Frio St Unit H Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	43d	1	0.91mi
1010 W Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.99mi
728 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,125	$1.19	4d	1	1.00mi
728 W San Antonio St Unit 730 A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,000	$1.06	4d	1	1.00mi
139 Elm St Unit 203 Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	934	$700	$0.75	24d	1	1.02mi
139 Elm St Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$750	$1.02	43d	2	1.02mi
1502 Oak Knoll Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,050	$1.48	43d	1	1.08mi
329 Flores St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	1.23mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	43d	1	1.26mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	4d	1	1.28mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	11d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $99,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Fixer upper or tear down just a 5 minute walk from downtown. Amazing proximity to HEB, shops, and BBQ! House is in very poor condition, need either a major remodel or great for a new build. Lot is 0.25 acres, many new construction projects in the area!

15. 2026-04-04
    listed $110,000 Active 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Fixer upper or tear down just a 5 minute walk from downtown. Amazing proximity to HEB, shops, and BBQ! House is in very poor condition, need either a major remodel or great for a new build. Lot is 0.25 acres, many new construction projects in the area!

16. 2026-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$20/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,504
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,218
• After-tax cash flow: $5,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $110,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,504 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.