34 Shady Brook Cir · Abilene, TX 79605

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1983 4,487 sqft lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $143k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special in Abilene! This spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath home —making it a standout addition to any rental portfolio. The property is tenant-occupied with a lease in place , providing consistent income from day one. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this home is perfect for investors seeking a larger, well-maintained asset with great rental appeal. Don’t miss out on this high-potential opportunity in Abilene! Lease ends 5-31-2026 buyer and Buyers agent to verify square footage and material and schools

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+32.1%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,517
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -1.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Shady Brook Cir	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,170 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$120	100
5317 Fairmont St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,166 (-0%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	66
5302 Waldemar St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,178 (+1%)	7mo	$148,000	$126	63
5333 Fairmont St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,117 (-4%)	2mo	$215,000	$192	61
13 Woodcock Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+4%)	2mo	$205,000	$168	60
5348 Fairmont St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (-7%)	2mo	$165,000	$152	57
5272 Benbrook St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+4%)	5mo	$205,000	$168	54
5298 Belton St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (+1%)	6mo	$195,000	$165	49
5802 Chachalaca Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (+12%)	5mo	$175,000	$134	46
1742 Chucker Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+7%)	9mo	$165,900	$133	39
5457 Blue Quail Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+13%)	6mo	$196,000	$148	29
1717 Chachalaca Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (+14%)	13mo	$199,000	$149	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,035
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $68,374
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79605

• Rents YoY: 32.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,984/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $312	+0% $273	+5% $233	+10% $194
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $204	+0% $273	+5% $342	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $308	base $273	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5850 Hartford St Lot 123 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,495	$1.17	13d	1	0.05mi
5348 Benbrook St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$2,100	$1.80	45d	1	0.45mi
728 Redbird Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.5	994	$1,695	$1.71	13d	1	0.58mi
438 Benjamin Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,299	$1.89	21d	1	1.03mi
402 Arnold Blvd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,299	$1.89	21d	1	1.04mi
841 S San Jose Dr Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1122	$3,000	$2.67	21d	1	1.13mi
2620 Roman Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,399	$1.83	7d	1	1.18mi
2726 Roman Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,399	$2.18	5d	1	1.27mi
2870 Glennster St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,299	$1.90	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $140,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-03-30
   listed $140,000 Active 528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (528 chars)

   Investor Special in Abilene! This spacious 2-bedroom, 1-bath home —making it a standout addition to any rental portfolio. The property is tenant-occupied with a lease in place , providing consistent income from day one. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this home is perfect for investors seeking a larger, well-maintained asset with great rental appeal. Don’t miss out on this high-potential opportunity in Abilene! Lease ends 5-31-2026 buyer and Buyers agent to verify square footage and material and schools

6. 2026-02-13
   historical
7. 2025-12-05
   listed $137,000 Active
8. 2025-07-09
   listed $146,000 Active
9. 2004-04-28
   soldstatus
10. 2004-04-28
    soldstatus
11. 2003-08-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,984 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,984 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,984
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$292
• After-tax cash flow: $2,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,467
• Household income: $62,929
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.75%
• Current HPI: 201.2341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 32.08%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $137,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $146,000 NTREIS
• 2004-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,984 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.