Is 21922 Vernazza Bnd in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-693/mo modeled cash flow at a $322,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 21922 Vernazza Bnd?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,542/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.21

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$322,500

21922 Vernazza Bnd · Hockley, TX 77447

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,349 sqft lot 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand-new D. R. Horton home in Cypress Green! This spacious home offers 6 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open-concept layout designed for comfortable living. The impressive foyer leads to a gourmet island kitchen with quartz countertops, abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large pantry overlooking the dining and family room. The private first-floor primary suite features an oversized shower and walk-in closet, while five secondary bedrooms upstairs provide space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional highlights include smart home technology, energy-efficient construction, tankless water heater, sprinkler system, fenced backyard, and a 2-car garage.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Walk-in closet
Oversized shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-693 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (16.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (21.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $254k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $254,152 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.05%
Cash-on-cash: -8.00%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $371,345
List price: $322,500
Delta: -15.45%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27403 Prairie Rush Dr	0.00mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,694 (+15%)	2mo	$449,900	$167	63
26638 Plain Glee St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,413 (+3%)	2mo	$329,990	$137	58
26715 Plain Glee St	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,615 (+11%)	1mo	$354,490	$136	45
26634 Plain Glee St	0.60mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,615 (+11%)	4mo	$349,090	$133	43
26642 Plain Glee St	0.60mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,615 (+11%)	4mo	$366,598	$140	43
26727 Plain Glee St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,615 (+11%)	4mo	$349,490	$134	42
26707 Plain Glee St	0.63mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,675 (+14%)	3mo	$355,000	$133	38
26515 Glad Fields Dr	0.69mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,644 (+13%)	4mo	$399,000	$151	37
26539 Glad Fields Dr	0.68mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,577 (+10%)	11mo	$430,000	$167	32
26583 Jolly Prairie Dr	0.69mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,674 (+14%)	11mo	$486,722	$182	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.9%
Equity multiple: -0.07×
Total profit: $-111,669
Equity at exit: $55,369

10-year hold

IRR: -66.6%
Equity multiple: -0.75×
Total profit: $-182,405
Equity at exit: $32,107

Cash invested: $103,977 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 7 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply: 3.5 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $410,000 ($154/sqft)
Median days on market: 110 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2097
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,542 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,947
Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,570/yr
Insurance: −$155
HOA: −$135
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
Net cashflow: $-693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,419

Max offer price $270,997

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-437	-5% $-565	+0% $-693	+5% $-822	+10% $-950
Rent	-10% $-894	-5% $-794	+0% $-693	+5% $-593	+10% $-493
Rate	-1.0pp $-506	-0.5pp $-599	base $-693	+0.5pp $-790	+1.0pp $-888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $92,836
Closing costs: $11,140
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Has association (Real Manage Onsite Elevated)Annual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageGarage door opener
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (builder: DR Horton)Single-family style with multiple storiesEntry level: First floorComposition roofFacing direction: not specified
Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorSlab foundation
Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fenceSprinkler/irrigation

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12)Bedrooms on second floor (three approx. 11 x 10, 10 x 10, 10 x 10)First-floor bedroom (approx. 10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
Interior features: High ceilingsProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsNo fireplaces7 total rooms
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $135/mo · $1,620/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 41 events

2026-08-08

days on market $322,500 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $322,500 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $322,500 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $322,500 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $322,500 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $322,500 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $322,500 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $322,500 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $322,500 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $322,500 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $322,500 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $322,500 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $322,500 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $322,500 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $322,500 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $322,500 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-16

pricedays on market $322,500 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-11

remarks 699-char remark
2026-07-11

pricedays on marketlisting id $325,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $313,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $313,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $313,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $313,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $313,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $313,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $313,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $313,990 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $313,990 Active 127 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $313,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $313,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $313,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-05-12

status Active 521-char remark
2026-03-16

historical Active Under Contract 521-char remark
2026-03-04

price $313,990 521-char remark
2026-03-03

price $312,990 521-char remark
2026-01-27

price $313,990 521-char remark
2026-01-27

listed $343,990 Active 521-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,498
− Mortgage interest: −$20,801
− Property taxes: −$5,570
− Insurance: −$1,857
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,440
− Management: −$2,440
− HOA: −$1,620
− Depreciation: −$10,803
Taxable loss: −$15,032

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,608
After-tax cash flow: $-4,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious yard. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — Maintaining the landscaping and pool will keep the property looking attractive and functional. ↑
Both Regular home maintenance — Regular maintenance will ensure the property remains in good condition and reduces the risk of costly repairs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-07-10 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
2026-03-16 Contingent — HARMLS
2026-03-04 Price Changed $313,990 HARMLS
2026-03-03 Price Changed $312,990 HARMLS
2026-01-27 Price Changed $313,990 HARMLS
2026-01-27 Listed $343,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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