Mays Plan · Foley, AL 36535

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily · 333 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Modern designs
• Open-concept layouts
• Convenient access

Tags

• NEW COMMUNITY
• MODERN DESIGNS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• DINING OPTIONS

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,740.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Foley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swift Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #416 of 627 statewide, top 67%, 118 students, 92% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 38% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,696 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,740
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -1.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15305 Planters Lane Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,569 (0%)	0mo	$261,990	$167	96
15430 Planters Lane Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,569 (0%)	0mo	$255,990	$163	96
15360 Tiller Lane Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,569 (0%)	0mo	$268,685	$171	94
15294 Tiller Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,569 (0%)	5mo	$262,990	$168	89
8952 Sherman Road Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-5%)	3mo	$285,000	$191	81
15968 Furlong Loop Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	0mo	$261,490	$185	76
8815 Gryder St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-7%)	5mo	$253,500	$174	74
15318 Tiller Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	5mo	$266,490	$189	73
15464 Planters Lane Loop	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+10%)	0mo	$270,000	$156	72
8940 Caitlin St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-12%)	6mo	$240,000	$174	72
15940 Furlong Loop Loop	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+10%)	0mo	$263,980	$152	69
15390 Planters Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+10%)	5mo	$271,490	$157	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-62,878
• Equity at exit: $40,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-85,019
• Equity at exit: $23,754

Cash invested: $76,927 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.6 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,441
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,121/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,403

Max offer price $238,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-155	+0% $-250	+5% $-345	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-332	+0% $-250	+5% $-168	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-180	base $-250	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,685
• Closing costs: $8,242
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15417 Furlong Loop Foley, AL	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,100	$1.11	154d	1	0.10mi
8808 Lockridge Rd Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	17d	1	0.45mi
15130 Marem Dr Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,800	$1.29	10d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 332 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $269,990 Active 331 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $269,990 Active 330 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $269,990 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $269,990 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $269,990 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 317 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 316 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 315 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 314 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 313 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 312 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 311 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 310 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 309 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 308 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 307 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 306 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 305 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 304 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 303 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 302 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 301 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $269,990 Active 300 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 299 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 298 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 297 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 296 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 295 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 294 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 293 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 292 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 291 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 290 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 289 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 288 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 287 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 286 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 285 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 284 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 283 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,390
• − Property taxes: −$4,121
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$7,992
• Taxable loss: −$7,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout with a good condition score, ready for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Foley Middle School F AL #172/257 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Foley High School F AL #118/305 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Listed $279,990 Zillow