3431 S Pacific Hwy Spc 64 · Medford, OR 97501

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1994 $49/sqft · 60% below area $845/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Backs to a greenway
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• BACKS TO A GREENWAY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WALKING TRAILS
• FRONT PORCH
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.18%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -59.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $8,162
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $32,965
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$845
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $362	+0% $339	+5% $317	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $255	+0% $339	+5% $424	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $360	base $339	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Olympic Ave Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	45d	1	1.35mi
3126 Alameda St Medford, OR	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,100	$1.22	14d	1	1.41mi
889 Morrison Ave Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,495	$1.51	22d	1	1.43mi
2453 Republic Way Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.47mi
3141 Alameda St Medford, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$2,107	$1.56	14d	6	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $845 · $10,140/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $80,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   price $80,000 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

7. 2026-05-19
   status Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

8. 2026-04-23
   price $89,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

9. 2026-03-23
   price $99,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

10. 2026-02-01
    status Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

11. 2026-01-29
    status Pending 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

12. 2026-01-29
    historical 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

13. 2025-11-24
    listed $115,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautiful and well-maintained manufactured home in Glenwood Estates, a 55+ community. This move-in-ready home backs to a greenway with mountain views and offers quick access to walking trails and nearby shopping. Enjoy the charming front porch, mature landscaping, and a spacious side yard with two storage sheds. Inside, you'll find a new HVAC system, LVP flooring in the kitchen with tile countertops, great living room and lots of natural lighting. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, great counter space and appliances. Spacious primary bedroom with attached bathroom and a stylish tile walk-in shower. Warm, inviting, and thoughtfully cared for, this home is the perfect blend of convenience, beauty, and low-maintenance living in a welcoming community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − HOA: −$10,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $3,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $80,000 MLSCO
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $89,900 MLSCO
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $99,900 MLSCO
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-01-29 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-11-24 Listed $115,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $651 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.