2509 E Willetta St · Phoenix, AZ 85008

$395,000

12 bd · 16.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1950 6,610 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity! This 4-plex is ideally located near major freeways, shopping, dining, schools, and everyday conveniences, offering strong appeal for both tenants and investors. The property features four units with significant income-producing potential. While the property needs TLC, it presents an excellent value-add opportunity for investors looking to renovate, increase rents, and build equity. Whether you're expanding your portfolio or seeking a multifamily property in a highly accessible location, this property offers tremendous upside and long-term potential.

Key facts

• 6,610 sq ft lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax noted (see listing for details)
• HOA & community: Community features: See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 8 parking spaces; 4 covered spaces (carports); 4 open parking spaces; More than one space per unit
• Utilities: Electric service by APS; Public sewer; City franchise water
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Two buildings on the property
• Construction: Wood frame and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 130.61 x 50.61

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven
• Bedrooms: One-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Free-standing gas oven; Tile flooring; Central heating and central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $402/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $395k).
• Recommended offer: $389k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,493/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2661% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $395k implies a 913% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.47%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $22,502
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $89,734
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85008

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 24.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,154
• Net cashflow: $1,610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,455

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,883	-5% $1,746	+0% $1,610	+5% $1,473	+10% $1,337
Rent	-10% $1,176	-5% $1,393	+0% $1,610	+5% $1,827	+10% $2,044
Rate	-1.0pp $1,809	-0.5pp $1,710	base $1,610	+0.5pp $1,507	+1.0pp $1,403

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	4	$5,492
Total (4 units)			$5,493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $395,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 589-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $395,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,273
• − Management: −$5,273
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable income: $13,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,325
• After-tax cash flow: $15,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 59,716
• Household income: $66,353
• Rent vs Own: 68.7% rent · 31.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 36% White 26% Black 10% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.09%
• Current HPI: 485.9412
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.37%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+731.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 1993-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $748 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.