242 N Shoal Ln · Saratoga Springs, UT 84045

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful townhome built in 2024, located in one of Saratoga Springs & acirc; & euro; & trade; most desirable family-friendly communities. Enjoy the perfect blend of convenience, recreation, and modern living in a rapidly growing area. Just a 2-minute drive from the scenic Jordan River Trail and close to Utah Lake, this home offers easy access to outdoor activities and breathtaking surroundings. Everyday essentials are nearby, with Smith & acirc; & euro; & trade; s, Costco, Walmart, and Fat Cats all within minutes. Plus, you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re only 2 minutes from Lehi, making commuting and entertainment incredibly convenient. Res

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Community amenities
• Swimming pool

Tags

• TOWNHOME BUILT IN 2024
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE RESERVED FOR EVENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dry Creek School (math 60% / reading 60%, grade B-, #52 of 585 statewide, top 10%, 1,127 students, 13% FRL); Willowcreek Middle (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #35 of 138 statewide, top 26%, 1,746 students, 13% FRL); Lehi High (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #57 of 171 statewide, top 34%, 1,982 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1187 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,358 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $169,410
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $514,365
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84045

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1187
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,893

Max offer price $290,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-290	-5% $-398	+0% $-505	+5% $-613	+10% $-720
Rent	-10% $-683	-5% $-594	+0% $-505	+5% $-416	+10% $-327
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-409	base $-505	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
967 E Drifter Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,200	$1.57	16d	1	0.04mi
986 Manifest Ln #2110 Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	25d	1	0.06mi
982 E Drifter Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	3.0	1508	$2,250	$1.49	25d	1	0.08mi
243 N Portside Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,150	$1.54	16d	1	0.09mi
1033 E Bearing Dr Saratoga Springs, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,903	$1.78	4d	25	0.11mi
38 N Heading Ct Unit 1 Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	0.37mi
251 N Riverside Dr Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	2.5	1587	$2,250	$1.42	16d	1	0.92mi
39 S Baker Spring Cv Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,400	$1.33	23d	1	1.02mi
1848 W 700 S Lehi, UT	3.0	2.5	1636	$2,349	$1.44	4d	1	1.18mi
68 S Willow Circle Loop Unit B Lehi, UT	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,625	$1.26	25d	1	1.46mi
28 S Willow Circle Loop Lehi, UT	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,550	$1.21	25d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $379,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 663-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $379,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast UT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,507 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$13,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine District
• NCES district ID: 4900030
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,595
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #3213
• State rank: #25 of 80 in UT

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #7648

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, UT
• County: Utah County · 661,754 people
• City population: 45,429
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• Population (ZIP): 45,429
• Household income: $130,331
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Utah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 693,420 people
• By 2030: 757,324 · +9.2%
• By 2040: 893,178 · +28.8%
• By 2050: 1,035,842 · +49.4%
• By 2075: 1,376,733 · +98.5%
• By 2100: 1,609,388 · +132.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Scottish 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Utah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 28.5% · R 68.3% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +19.1pp toward D · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+37.3 2012: R+78.5 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.09%
• Current HPI: 298.0545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $379,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,620 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.