1025 Blue Beech Ln · Katy, TX 77423

$269,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2018 5,952 sqft lot $153/sqft · 11% below area Est $303k · 11% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1025 Blue Beech Lane. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Kingsland Heights is beautifully updated and move in ready. This home has fresh interior and exterior paint, new carpeting, and modern LED lighting throughout. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances, including refrigerator. Recent upgrades include a new Trane A/C System, while the home also includes a Washer and Dryer. The driveway has been recently sealed at the expansion joints to help prevent water intrusion, adding durability and peace of mind. Enjoy the backyard space with no backyard neighbors and a covered patio.

Key facts

• New trane a/c system
• Updated
• Covered patio

Tags

• UPDATED
• NEW TRANE A/C SYSTEM
• COVERED PATIO
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,979 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,538
• List price: $269,995
• Delta: -10.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
992 Blue Beech Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,863 (+6%)	4mo	$282,000	$151	78
1060 Fraser Fir Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-3%)	4mo	$265,000	$155	77
2073 Spindletree Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,758 (-0%)	11mo	$290,000	$165	76
1025 Banyon Tree Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,826 (+4%)	13mo	$284,900	$156	68
9994 Boulder Bend Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-1%)	12mo	$313,000	$180	55
30201 Golden Sky Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,939 (+10%)	8mo	$354,750	$183	54
9972 Morgan Creek Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-1%)	12mo	$315,000	$181	54
30104 Prairie Creek Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,939 (+10%)	9mo	$335,000	$173	49
10159 Rose Willow Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-12%)	4mo	$275,000	$178	45
10140 Hidden Creek Falls Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-12%)	9mo	$308,500	$200	43
10143 Rose Willow Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (-11%)	8mo	$280,000	$178	40
9973 Spring Rock Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-13%)	13mo	$289,000	$188	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-75,168
• Equity at exit: $40,257

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-122,699
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$653 /mo · $7,835/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $200,979

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,499
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4104 Scarlet Oak Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1917	$2,112	$1.10	1d	2	0.46mi
10108 Hidden Creek Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2367	$2,298	$0.97	5d	1	0.63mi
9863 Willowmoor Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	2070	$2,550	$1.23	24d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,995 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,995 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,995 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,995 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,995 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,995 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,995 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,995 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,995 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,995 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,995 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,995 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,995 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $269,995

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Welcome to 1025 Blue Beech Lane. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Kingsland Heights is beautifully updated and move in ready. This home has fresh interior and exterior paint, new carpeting, and modern LED lighting throughout. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances, including refrigerator. Recent upgrades include a new Trane A/C System, while the home also includes a Washer and Dryer. The driveway has been recently sealed at the expansion joints to help prevent water intrusion, adding durability and peace of mind. Enjoy the backyard space with no backyard neighbors and a covered patio.

15. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Welcome to 1025 Blue Beech Lane. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Kingsland Heights is beautifully updated and move in ready. This home has fresh interior and exterior paint, new carpeting, and modern LED lighting throughout. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances, including refrigerator. Recent upgrades include a new Trane A/C System, while the home also includes a Washer and Dryer. The driveway has been recently sealed at the expansion joints to help prevent water intrusion, adding durability and peace of mind. Enjoy the backyard space with no backyard neighbors and a covered patio.

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $269,995 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Welcome to 1025 Blue Beech Lane. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Kingsland Heights is beautifully updated and move in ready. This home has fresh interior and exterior paint, new carpeting, and modern LED lighting throughout. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances, including refrigerator. Recent upgrades include a new Trane A/C System, while the home also includes a Washer and Dryer. The driveway has been recently sealed at the expansion joints to help prevent water intrusion, adding durability and peace of mind. Enjoy the backyard space with no backyard neighbors and a covered patio.

17. 2026-02-14
    price $274,950
18. 2026-01-15
    listed $279,900 Active
19. 2026-01-08
    historical
20. 2025-10-27
    price $289,975
21. 2025-08-19
    price $299,975
22. 2025-08-10
    price $309,900
23. 2025-08-10
    price $299,900
24. 2025-07-31
    listed $329,000 Active
25. 2024-03-11
    status Pending
26. 2024-03-04
    status Option Pending
27. 2024-03-04
    historical
28. 2024-02-28
    price $269,999
29. 2024-02-20
    price $279,999
30. 2024-02-06
    price $285,000
31. 2024-01-18
    price $295,000
32. 2023-12-28
    listed $310,000 Active
33. 2023-12-27
    historical
34. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus
35. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus Sold
36. 2021-05-22
    status Pending
37. 2021-05-13
    status Option Pending
38. 2021-04-28
    listed $250,000 Active
39. 2021-02-27
    historical
40. 2021-01-28
    price $239,500
41. 2020-12-01
    status Active
42. 2020-11-28
    status Option Pending
43. 2020-04-13
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,835 · $653/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,835 · $653/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$7,835
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$9,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,229
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $269,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $269,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $274,950 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $289,975 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $299,975 HARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2021-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-01-28 Price Changed $239,500 HARMLS
• 2020-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-13 Listed $239,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,835 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.