19914 N Lauren Rd · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$365,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2021 6,877 sqft lot $143/sqft · 12% below area Est $416k · 12% under $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Set in a prime Maricopa location, this beautiful 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 2,406 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a generous lot. Built in 2021, it features an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining, with a well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. Enjoy added value with an air-conditioned shed with electricity, garage shelving, and a fireplace that conveys. No neighbor behind provides added privacy, all with convenient access to amenities and commuter routes.

Key facts

• 6,877 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size information from assessor; Building area source: Assessor; Tax details available
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Community association with $85 monthly fee (includes street maintenance); Community amenities: lake, playground, biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Desert view; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Built with stucco and wood frame; Spray foam insulation; Tile roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Block fencing; Sprinklers in rear; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Grass in back; Automatic timer irrigation in front; East/West exposure; City-maintained road; 30 ft to street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Built-in microwave; Pantry, walk-in pantry; Granite counters; Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment; Central air; Mini-split cooling; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity in bath(s); Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Bidet; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Accessible hallways; Storage; Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal
• Laundry & utility: ENERGY STAR laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $365k implies a 5447% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,794 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,151
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40494 W Williams Way	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,549 (0%)	4mo	$484,900	$190	88
40666 W Crane Dr	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,386 (-6%)	5mo	$375,000	$157	82
20470 N Tammy St	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-1%)	3mo	$217,500	$86	65
20945 N Dries Rd	0.68mi	5/3.0	2,529 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$138	65
40424 W Crane Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,358 (-8%)	7mo	$362,000	$154	64
41285 W Pryor Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,482 (-3%)	2mo	$358,750	$145	63
40121 W Curtis Way	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,299 (-10%)	1mo	$379,900	$165	56
40010 W Ganly Way	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,299 (-10%)	3mo	$381,776	$166	54
40108 W Curtis Way	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,299 (-10%)	7mo	$360,000	$157	50
41290 W Ganley Way	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,228 (-13%)	7mo	$370,000	$166	50
21033 N Alexis Ave	0.71mi	5/2.5	2,276 (-11%)	7mo	$347,500	$153	41
20594 N Tammy St	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-14%)	4mo	$303,000	$138	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-60,937
• Equity at exit: $90,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-74,822
• Equity at exit: $96,279

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 860
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,735/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $275,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-405	+0% $-508	+5% $-612	+10% $-715
Rent	-10% $-696	-5% $-602	+0% $-508	+5% $-415	+10% $-321
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-416	base $-508	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,785	$0.98	0d	1	0.22mi
41057 W Ganley Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1908	$1,925	$1.01	0d	1	0.22mi
40907 W Robbins Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1891	$1,749	$0.92	23d	1	0.62mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	12d	1	0.63mi
20791 N Grantham Rd Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	3266	$2,675	$0.82	6d	1	0.76mi
41209 W Hayden Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2837	$3,500	$1.23	45d	1	0.83mi
40893 W Bedford Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2748	$2,750	$1.00	6d	1	0.94mi
21357 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2635	$2,300	$0.87	12d	1	0.96mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,729	$0.92	18d	1	1.03mi
18175 N Cook Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.5	3133	$2,100	$0.67	4d	1	1.12mi
41261 W Laramie Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2691	$1,895	$0.70	14d	1	1.15mi
21657 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$1,899	$0.88	45d	1	1.22mi
42735 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	3735	$2,495	$0.67	0d	1	1.28mi
41298 W Parkhill Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,000	$0.98	45d	1	1.29mi
40515 W Chambers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1978	$1,795	$0.91	16d	1	1.36mi
19053 N Wilson St Unit 1545785P Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	3239	$4,438	$1.37	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $379,000 537-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $385,000 Active 537-char remark
3. 2020-07-29
   soldstatus $6,580

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,735 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,735 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,735
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$12,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5447.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $379,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2020-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $6,580 Public Records

Property tax history

+106.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,735 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.