25150 Fairbanks Ln · Covelo, CA 95428

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 305 Days on market

1.07 ac lot $54/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of 25150 Fairbanks Ln in peaceful Covelo, CA! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of opportunityperfect for investors, first-time buyers, or those seeking a quiet country retreat. Nestled on a spacious lot with room to grow, this property offers a solid foundation to create your dream space inside and out. With a little vision and TLC, this charming home can truly shine!

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 305 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $547 of equity ($518 loan paydown + $29 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.69%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,925
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -73.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $29,942
• Equity at exit: $21,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $77,434
• Equity at exit: $26,436

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95428

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $74,900 Pending 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $74,900 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,900 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,900 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 294 DOM
11. 2001-07-05
    soldstatus $110,000
12. 1986-08-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 46 unhealthy d/yr today · 47 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $4,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633720
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,309
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #14063
• State rank: #1281 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Covelo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #22831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,667

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% Native American 29% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 151.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2001-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,987 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.