1918 Caracara St · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$309,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 6,263 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sanctuary! The Lakeside plan is an impressive 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home with a 2-car garage. As you step inside this beautiful home, you'll immediately notice guest bedrooms 4 and 5, located towards the front and separated by a guest bath. Moving towards the back of the house, you'll discover a captivating open concept kitchen, living, and dining room area. The kitchen is complete with an island, stunning countertops, a spacious pantry, and sleek stainless-steel appliances. Adjacent to the dining room area, there's a hallway that leads to guest bedrooms 2 and 3, as well as a second guest bath. Bedroom 1 is a true sanctuary, tucked away just off the living area. It offers a luxur

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Spacious pantry
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee (association-managed; fee listed annually); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Front entrance access; 2 total covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: New construction (under construction); Single-story; Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as one-level
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Interior lot; Paved road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Not updated (new construction)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Baseboards; Double pane windows; Storm windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookups inside

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 512 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,541 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-69,713
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-85,638
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,764

Max offer price $265,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-200	+0% $-307	+5% $-414	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-401	+0% $-307	+5% $-213	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-228	base $-307	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $309,900 Pending 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $309,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $314,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   pricestatusdays on market $314,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
10. 2026-05-08
    price $324,900
11. 2026-03-30
    price $327,900
12. 2026-03-13
    price $325,900
13. 2026-03-11
    price $322,900
14. 2026-02-16
    listed $342,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$9,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $324,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $327,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $325,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $322,900 PARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $342,900 PARMLS