3932 Killdeer Lane Ln · Billings, MT 59102

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $84k · 8% over $645/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large living room
• Large kitchen
• Two exterior decks

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• TWO EXTERIOR DECKS
• ABUNDANT PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Shilo Village Estates subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $645; HOA covers structure maintenance, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Located in a planned unit development; 1,216 above-grade finished area
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range/oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Window coverings and treatments; Washer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($43/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Sky Elementary (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #135 of 293 statewide, top 52%, 328 students, 0% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #117 of 146 statewide, top 80%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Billings West High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #35 of 132 statewide, top 27%, 2,269 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,616
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3914 Sandpiper Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-2%)	10mo	$98,500	$93	86
3925 Tanager Ln Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+6%)	6mo	$75,000	$66	77
3836 Sandpiper Lane Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+13%)	2mo	$89,999	$74	71
3882 Killdeer Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+11%)	4mo	$104,900	$88	70
3957 Teal St. St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	4mo	$79,000	$65	67
3908 Swallow Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+13%)	4mo	$94,900	$78	67
3855 Tanager Lane Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	0mo	$124,900	$103	66
3839 Killdeer Lane Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	2mo	$95,000	$78	66
3835 S Tanager Ln Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	4mo	$89,900	$74	62
3801 N Tanager Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	5mo	$85,000	$70	61
3815 S Tanager Ln #102	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	4mo	$78,000	$64	60
3819 Sandpiper Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	6mo	$149,000	$123	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-10,568
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,130
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$645
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $35	+0% $4	+5% $-27	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-60	+0% $4	+5% $67	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $26	base $4	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3900 Victory Cir Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	966	$1,360	$1.41	15d	21	0.29mi
115 Shiloh Rd Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$1,968	$1.70	15d	9	0.43mi
3900 Olympic Blvd Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,390	$1.45	15d	5	0.59mi
501 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,850	$1.81	15d	7	0.65mi
4427 Altay Dr Billings, MT	3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,083	$2.20	15d	18	0.73mi
611 S 44th St W Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,150	$1.57	15d	1	0.75mi
611 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0	1.0	823	$1,690	$2.05	22d	1	0.75mi
610 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,745	$1.59	15d	9	0.76mi
371 Cape Cod Dr Billings, MT	2.0	1.5	1175	$1,495	$1.27	22d	1	0.90mi
353 Cape Cod Dr Unit 3 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,295	$1.23	15d	1	0.90mi
3290 Granger Ave E Billings, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,225	$1.79	15d	5	0.95mi
3040 Central Ave Billings, MT	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,678	$1.89	15d	25	1.14mi
218 Brookshire Blvd Billings, MT	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,445	$1.28	22d	1	1.33mi
1550 Country Manor Blvd Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,578	$1.45	15d	10	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $645 · $7,740/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $89,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $89,900 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
19. 2026-05-03
    status Active
20. 2026-05-03
    price $95,000
21. 2026-04-23
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-04-14
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − HOA: −$7,740
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$237
• After-tax cash flow: $280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Billings H S
• NCES district ID: 3003900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,863
• Composite: 31.93/100
• National rank: #5848
• State rank: #69 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $95,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — BMTMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $105,000 BMTMLS