22 Davey St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$94,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,452 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1912 4,020 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 22 Davey Street. A duplex ready for your next investment opportunity! Bring your vision to unlock the full potential of this property. Great opportunity to build equity and long-term cash flow. Whether you're an investor seeking your next project or a homeowner looking to live in one unit and rent the other, this property provides flexibility and upside. The home does require TLC and updates but offers a solid foundation to create strong rental income or resale value. This property is being sold as-is. Excellent potential for the right buyer looking to add value. MUST make appointment on showing time to see property. Delayed Negotiations due Wednesday 2/18/2026 @10 am. Come Turn

Key facts

• Built 1912
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $95k implies a 427% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.13%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,708
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
540 Willett St	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,658 (+8%)	7mo	$149,900	$56	48
386 Davey St	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,244 (-8%)	9mo	$178,000	$79	46
90 Halstead Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-10%)	17mo	$211,500	$96	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $86,141
• Equity at exit: $72,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.10×
• Total profit: $215,176
• Equity at exit: $144,224

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $760	+0% $734	+5% $707	+10% $680
Rent	-10% $603	-5% $668	+0% $734	+5% $799	+10% $864
Rate	-1.0pp $781	-0.5pp $758	base $734	+0.5pp $709	+1.0pp $684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
181 Willett St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2704	$1,550	$0.57	2d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   price $94,900
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $74,900 Active
4. 2009-11-20
   soldstatus $18,000
5. 1995-07-13
   soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,009 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 143.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $7,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $6,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+86.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.