464 Red Hen Rd · Union Grove, TX 75647

$69,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1996 0.46 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in Union Grove ISD! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 square feet of living space and was built in 1996, making it a solid addition to any rental portfolio. The property is currently tenant-occupied and generating $800 per month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow. With a functional layout and strong school district appeal, this home presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to add a steady, income-producing property with potential for future rent growth or value-add improvements.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,363 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Grove ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #117 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.75%
• DSCR: 3.75
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $52,831
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $128,663
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75647

• Home prices YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,047	-5% $1,027	+0% $1,007	+5% $987	+10% $968
Rent	-10% $860	-5% $934	+0% $1,007	+5% $1,081	+10% $1,154
Rate	-1.0pp $1,042	-0.5pp $1,025	base $1,007	+0.5pp $989	+1.0pp $971

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Investor special in Union Grove ISD! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 square feet of living space and was built in 1996, making it a solid addition to any rental portfolio. The property is currently tenant-occupied and generating $800 per month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow. With a functional layout and strong school district appeal, this home presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to add a steady, income-producing property with potential for future rent growth or value-add improvements.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Investor special in Union Grove ISD! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 square feet of living space and was built in 1996, making it a solid addition to any rental portfolio. The property is currently tenant-occupied and generating $800 per month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow. With a functional layout and strong school district appeal, this home presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to add a steady, income-producing property with potential for future rent growth or value-add improvements.

3. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Investor special in Union Grove ISD! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 square feet of living space and was built in 1996, making it a solid addition to any rental portfolio. The property is currently tenant-occupied and generating $800 per month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow. With a functional layout and strong school district appeal, this home presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to add a steady, income-producing property with potential for future rent growth or value-add improvements.

4. 2026-01-13
   listed $69,900 Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Investor special in Union Grove ISD! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 square feet of living space and was built in 1996, making it a solid addition to any rental portfolio. The property is currently tenant-occupied and generating $800 per month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow. With a functional layout and strong school district appeal, this home presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to add a steady, income-producing property with potential for future rent growth or value-add improvements.

5. 2021-08-31
   soldstatus
6. 2021-08-30
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2021-08-30
   soldstatus
8. 2021-08-30
   soldstatus
9. 2021-08-06
   status Pending
10. 2021-07-28
    historical Active Option Contract
11. 2021-07-26
    listed $45,000
12. 2021-06-30
    listed $45,000 Active
13. 2021-06-30
    listed $45,000
14. 2017-03-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 56.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $11,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,796
• After-tax cash flow: $9,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,597
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2458
• State rank: #117 of 826 in TX

Livability — Union Grove

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1363
• US rank: #23429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,457

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.12%
• Current HPI: 303.1316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — LAAR
• 2026-04-10 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $69,900 LAAR
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-07-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-07-26 Listed $45,000 GTAR
• 2021-06-30 Listed $45,000 LAAR
• 2021-06-30 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2017-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.