1611 County Route 37 · Central Square, NY 13167

$224,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1954 0.72 ac lot Est $206k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! This sprawling 4-bedroom ranch offers nearly 1,600 square feet of living space and is packed with features that are becoming harder and harder to find. Situated on approximately . 72 acres with peaceful farmland views behind the property, you'll enjoy the perfect blend of country feel and convenience, just minutes from Interstate 81, shopping, restaurants, and everyday amenities. Inside, you'll find a spacious floor plan featuring an oversized living room, a large eat-in kitchen, four generously sized bedrooms, and plenty of closet space throughout. Beneath much of the home's flooring, hardwood floors are believed to be waiting to be uncovered, offering even more potenti

Key facts

• Farmland views
• Spacious floor plan
• Paved driveway

Tags

• FARMLAND VIEWS
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• PAVED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and workshop space; Driveway; Garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Circuit breakers (electric)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Main thoroughfare frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Metal roof; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Blacktop driveway; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in / country-style kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Natural woodwork; Thermal windows; Has basement (full) with sump pump; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Central Square — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#723 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $161,189 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2801 State Route 49	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	21mo	$222,000	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $104,647
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $322,263
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13167

• Home prices YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,369/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $175,352

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-217	+0% $-280	+5% $-344	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-344	+0% $-280	+5% $-217	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-223	base $-280	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,369 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,585 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,369
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$7,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,773
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Central Square

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #13714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,984

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 7% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.53%
• Current HPI: 327.9799
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $224,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,369 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.