4812 Esmar Rd #29 · Keyes, CA 95307

$98,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition Est $99k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home offering 1,248 sqft of comfortable living space on a rare oversized lot within the community. This property features a covered carport patio for parking, a metal storage shed, generous side and backyard space, and a relaxing covered front porch perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Inside, enjoy central heat and air for year-round comfort along with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The community offers great amenities including a pool and clubhouse, with no age restrictions. Conveniently located near major shopping centers, restaurants, and with easy access to Highway 99, making comm

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pool and clubhouse
• Central heat and air

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT PATIO
• METAL STORAGE SHED
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• POOL AND CLUBHOUSE
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 99

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located inside a mobile home park (space #29); Address: 4812 Esmar Rd #29, Ceres, CA 95307
• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $1,100
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: Other
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide model; Built in 1979
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Festival Homes Inc. make; Skirting: Unknown
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area (kitchen); No specific appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Living and dining areas with unspecified 'Other' features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $980 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,514 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.43%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,592
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4812 Esmar Rd #2	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	77
4812 Esmar Rd #18	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+3%)	14mo	$116,500	$91	76
4837 Faith Home Rd #169	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	23mo	$98,000	$79	72
4837 Faith Home Rd #132	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	7mo	$50,000	$42	71
4837 Faith Home Rd #166	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$135,000	$100	71
4837 Faith Home Rd #4	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+10%)	2mo	$94,999	$69	69
4837 Faith Home Rd #42	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$160,000	$139	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,412
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $120,923
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $98,999

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,049	-5% $1,014	+0% $980	+5% $946	+10% $912
Rent	-10% $814	-5% $897	+0% $980	+5% $1,063	+10% $1,147
Rate	-1.0pp $1,030	-0.5pp $1,005	base $980	+0.5pp $954	+1.0pp $928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Hollywood Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	44d	1	0.28mi
5232 Clark St Keyes, CA	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,200	$1.94	14d	1	0.97mi
2800 Don Pedro Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,695	$2.08	4d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,999 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,999 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,999 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,999 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,999 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,999 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,999 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,999 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $98,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,545
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $9,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, and improve the exterior and landscaping. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — outdated and may need replacement
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — outdated fixtures can deter potential buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value
• Both update flooring in bedrooms — new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both trim landscaping — a well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and may need replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — outdated fixtures can deter potential buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both update flooring in bedrooms — new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — a well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B