Plan 1609 Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$226,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,609 sqft · SingleFamily · 706 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * 6-panel interior doors * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 705 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $226,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,641.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 706 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $199,755 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 706 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,641
• List price: $226,995
• Delta: -14.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22859 Wolfshire Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,609 (0%)	5mo	$264,995	$165	95
19743 Corberry Park Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,609 (0%)	7mo	$271,300	$169	91
22839 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-0%)	4mo	$247,995	$155	84
23047 Glory Orchid Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,571 (-2%)	1mo	$289,900	$185	75
19902 Corberry Park Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-14%)	2mo	$244,995	$178	68
23027 Glory Orchid Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-6%)	1mo	$284,900	$189	68
19807 Corberry Park Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-14%)	5mo	$239,995	$174	67
23035 Glory Orchid Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,413 (-12%)	2mo	$274,900	$195	58
22622 August Crow Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-4%)	4mo	$240,000	$155	57
23123 Glory Orchid Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (-6%)	6mo	$302,900	$201	56
23107 Dadi Orchid Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+12%)	5mo	$353,900	$197	44
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+13%)	4mo	$298,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-57,652
• Equity at exit: $39,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-85,336
• Equity at exit: $22,881

Cash invested: $74,099 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 209 active · 123 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,970/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $245,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-42	+0% $-134	+5% $-225	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-218	+0% $-134	+5% $-49	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-66	base $-134	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,160
• Closing costs: $7,939
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$2,175	$1.05	0d	1	0.47mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.65mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.65mi
22630 August Crow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$1,826	$0.82	7d	1	0.66mi
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,300	$1.10	134d	1	0.70mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	140d	1	0.93mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,766	$0.92	127d	1	0.95mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,997	$1.25	0d	7	0.99mi
22719 Tabberts Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,150	$1.14	3d	1	0.99mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	134d	1	1.00mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	130d	1	1.17mi
21235 Slate Bend Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,280	$1.06	23d	1	1.24mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	143d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $226,995 Active 706 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $226,995 Active 705 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $226,995 Active 704 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $226,995 Active 703 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $226,995 Active 702 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $226,995 Active 700 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $226,995 Active 699 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $226,995 Active 698 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $226,995 Active 697 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $226,995 Active 696 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $226,995 Active 695 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $226,995 Active 694 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $226,995 Active 693 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $226,995 Active 692 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $226,995 Active 691 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $226,995 Active 690 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $226,995 Active 689 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $226,995 Active 688 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $226,995 Active 687 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $226,995 Active 686 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $226,995 Active 685 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $226,995 Active 684 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $226,995 Active 683 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $226,995 Active 682 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $226,995 Active 681 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $226,995 Active 680 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $226,995 Active 679 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $226,995 Active 678 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $226,995 Active 677 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $226,995 Active 676 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $226,995 Active 675 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $226,995 Active 674 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $226,995 Active 673 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $226,995 Active 672 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $226,995 Active 671 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $226,995 Active 670 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $226,995 Active 669 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $226,995 Active 668 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $226,995 Active 667 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $226,995 Active 666 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $226,995 Active 665 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $226,995 Active 664 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $226,995 Active 663 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $226,995 Active 662 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $226,995 Active 661 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $226,995 Active 660 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $226,995 Active 659 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $226,995 Active 658 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $226,995 Active 657 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $226,995 Active 656 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,824
• − Property taxes: −$3,970
• − Insurance: −$1,323
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$7,699
• Taxable loss: −$6,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $-119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Long-term durability and safety ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $226,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $221,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $219,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $217,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $222,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $225,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $230,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $238,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $236,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $234,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $230,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $222,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $255,995 Zillow