11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #204 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$54,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 216 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $41/sqft · 31% below area Est $80k · 31% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Extra large office
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• EXTRA LARGE OFFICE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• COZY FRONT PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $477 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $97 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.33%
• DSCR: 4.71
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,995
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -31.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$94,500	$73	88
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	85
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$112,000	$83	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$92,000	$70	81
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+1%)	9mo	$75,000	$55	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	5mo	$79,990	$68	74
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+14%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #182	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	9mo	$70,000	$48	69
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	68
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,203 (-10%)	7mo	$135,000	$112	68
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$54	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $61,502
• Equity at exit: $16,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.34×
• Total profit: $128,196
• Equity at exit: $20,141

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.21mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	44d	1	0.25mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	0.57mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	0.57mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	2d	1	0.64mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.64mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.67mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	0.67mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.89mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.90mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	44d	1	1.08mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.11mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	1.12mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	1.21mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	1.21mi
10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$2,800	$2.81	20d	1	1.35mi
10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$3,000	$3.02	15d	1	1.38mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $54,900 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-03-12
    status Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

15. 2026-03-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

16. 2026-02-12
    status Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

17. 2026-02-09
    historical 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

18. 2026-02-04
    price $54,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

19. 2026-01-08
    price $64,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

20. 2025-11-10
    listed $69,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL!! This UNIQUE SPACIOUS split 2b 2b floor plan, with extra large office/craft room, large laundry room, newer roof, Is completed with a cozy front porch and large storage shed! Located near shopping, restaurants, Located in a highly sought after community of Rose Garden. A gated 55 plus age restricted resort style community. Community features heated pool, spa, sauna, pickleball, 2 dog parks, one even has agility equipment. Tons of activities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $12,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,046
• After-tax cash flow: $9,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home in a highly sought-after community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal needed improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves interior aesthetics and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves interior aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $54,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $69,000 ARMLS