4823 10th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1966 9,750 sqft lot $107/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

Key facts

• Near texas tech
• Vinyl plank flooring
• New roof

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• NEAR TEXAS TECH
• NEAR MEDICAL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener; Driveway; Drive-through access; Additional parking; On-street parking; Oversized garage
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 1,863
• Exterior features: Private yard; Lighting; Front porch; Patio; Fenced yard with gate (full backyard); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rush El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 309 students, 72% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,717 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,621
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -1.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,444
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,516
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,301/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $196,632

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $43	+0% $-13	+5% $-70	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-83	+0% $-13	+5% $56	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $37	base $-13	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4914 11th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,650	$1.07	23d	1	0.17mi
4803 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,600	$0.91	23d	1	0.19mi
4803 15th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2369	$2,500	$1.06	45d	1	0.35mi
4814 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,795	$1.10	15d	1	0.36mi
4940 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.36mi
4903 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,900	$1.00	15d	1	0.44mi
5209 15th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2193	$1,849	$0.84	23d	1	0.51mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	45d	1	0.52mi
5230 14th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,350	$0.93	15d	1	0.56mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	15d	1	0.60mi
5211 17th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2316	$2,000	$0.86	45d	1	0.61mi
4802 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.77mi
5442 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,349	$1.05	15d	1	0.77mi
5501 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,800	$0.96	23d	1	0.83mi
601 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$1,400	$0.89	23d	1	0.83mi
5503 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,500	$1.14	23d	1	0.84mi
5417 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$1,600	$0.73	45d	1	0.87mi
5518 16th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,700	$1.04	15d	1	0.99mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	15d	1	1.00mi
4109 18th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,799	$1.19	45d	1	1.09mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	45d	1	1.09mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	23d	1	1.10mi
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	23d	1	1.12mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	1.19mi
310 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	45d	1	1.31mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	23d	1	1.32mi
305 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1294	$1,200	$0.93	45d	1	1.34mi
503 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	1.37mi
5713 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	1.39mi
307 N Clinton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,225	$0.85	45d	1	1.39mi
505 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,425	$0.99	45d	1	1.41mi
505 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,325	$0.92	45d	1	1.41mi
516 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	1.44mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	1.46mi
5811 11th Pl Unit 9 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2404	$2,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.46mi
4634 Fordham St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	1.47mi
522 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	1.48mi
511 N Clinton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-04-09
    status Active 363-char remark
14. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 363-char remark
15. 2026-01-29
    listed $205,000 Active 363-char remark
16. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus
17. 2022-07-08
    soldstatus Closed 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

18. 2022-06-27
    price $181,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

19. 2022-06-11
    status Pending 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

20. 2022-06-10
    price $195,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

21. 2022-06-06
    price $187,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

22. 2022-05-25
    listed $192,500 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    4/2/2 Home! Perfect for Investor or First timers. This home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen has stainless appliances. 4th bedroom could be 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or other activities . Board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

23. 2022-01-25
    soldstatus
24. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    UPDATED 4/2/2 Home! This beautiful home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen offers updated countertops, stainless appliances & reverse osmosis system. 4th bedroom is large enough for a 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or workout equipment. Other features include: alarm system, security camera system, updated water heater, updated interior doors, updated fixtures & updated board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

25. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    UPDATED 4/2/2 Home! This beautiful home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen offers updated countertops, stainless appliances & reverse osmosis system. 4th bedroom is large enough for a 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or workout equipment. Other features include: alarm system, security camera system, updated water heater, updated interior doors, updated fixtures & updated board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

26. 2018-02-02
    listed $145,000

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    UPDATED 4/2/2 Home! This beautiful home features warm colors, vinyl plank flooring & crown molding. Kitchen offers updated countertops, stainless appliances & reverse osmosis system. 4th bedroom is large enough for a 2nd living area. Over-sized garage provides extra space for shop or workout equipment. Other features include: alarm system, security camera system, updated water heater, updated interior doors, updated fixtures & updated board-on-board fence. Conveniently located to Texas Tech, LCU & medical district!

27. 2017-08-07
    soldstatus
28. 2017-08-07
    listed $131,000
29. 2017-08-03
    soldstatus
30. 2016-05-19
    soldstatus
31. 2016-05-17
    soldstatus
32. 2016-04-08
    listed $129,950
33. 1994-05-01
    soldstatus
34. 1992-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,301 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,301
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$845
• After-tax cash flow: $684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $199,000 LARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-06-27 Price Changed $181,000 LARMLS
• 2022-06-11 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-06-10 Price Changed $195,000 LARMLS
• 2022-06-06 Price Changed $187,000 LARMLS
• 2022-05-25 Listed $192,500 LARMLS
• 2022-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2018-02-02 Listed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2017-08-07 Listed $131,000 LARMLS
• 2017-08-07 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-17 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $129,950 LARMLS
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,301 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.