4801 North State St #15 · Calpella, CA 95482

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 274 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $125/sqft · 89% above area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Low-maintenance yard
• Quiet well-kept park

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TILE FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• DRIVEWAY PARKING
• QUIET WELL-KEPT PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.5% in Calpella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,171 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.64%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,500
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 89.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4801 North State St #33	0.06mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	5mo	$55,000	$76	93
4801 N State St #48	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	2mo	$40,000	$60	87
4801 N State St #35	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	800 (+11%)	10mo	$19,999	$25	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $40,052
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $122,589
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $832	-5% $800	+0% $769	+5% $738	+10% $707
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $700	+0% $769	+5% $839	+10% $909
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $792	base $769	+0.5pp $746	+1.0pp $722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $90,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $100,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

19. 2025-11-12
    price $105,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

20. 2025-10-06
    price $110,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

21. 2025-09-18
    listed $120,000 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome to 4801 N State St, Space 15 a well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in the North Valley Mobile Estates Park. Interior highlights include a bright and open living area, a nicely updated kitchen with modern finishes, and a bathroom featuring tile flooring and an updated vanity. The home has been thoughtfully cared for and offers a clean, move-in ready feel throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch, carport, and a low-maintenance yard. Convenient driveway parking right next to the home. Ideally located in a quiet, well-kept park just minutes to shopping, dining, and Highway 101 access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $8,293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,990
• After-tax cash flow: $7,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in North Valley Mobile Estates Park is move-in ready with modern finishes and a low-maintenance yard.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both new flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and increases property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both new flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and increases property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calpella

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1171
• US rank: #25917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $90,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $100,000 BAREIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $105,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $110,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $120,000 BAREIS