618 Fairlane Dr · Lewisburg, TN 37091

$399,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1969 0.51 ac lot $176/sqft · 12% above area Est $356k · 12% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the first time in over 50 years that this home has been for sale. This is a move-in ready home in a wonderful neighborhood. Very spacious home with a large den, office/hobby room, large carport, 2 storage sheds, gas fireplace + much more.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Large den
• 2 storage sheds

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• LARGE DEN
• OFFICE HOBBY ROOM
• LARGE CARPORT
• 2 STORAGE SHEDS
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,003
• List price: $399,500
• Delta: 12.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
961 Fairlane Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+0%)	1mo	$412,000	$181	90
977 Galloway St	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,240 (-1%)	7mo	$420,000	$188	81
251 Joyce Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,204 (-3%)	4mo	$365,000	$166	66
518 Maple St	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,267 (0%)	6mo	$215,000	$95	63
1295 White Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,042 (-10%)	8mo	$345,000	$169	62
1275 White Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,385 (+5%)	15mo	$414,000	$174	59
620 6th Ave S	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,036 (-10%)	8mo	$225,000	$111	58
104 8th Ave S	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,156 (-5%)	8mo	$245,000	$114	57
739 Joyce Ave	0.36mi	3/3.0	2,559 (+13%)	1mo	$461,000	$180	57
575 Joyce Cir	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,046 (-10%)	1mo	$405,000	$198	56
240 Joyce Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,002 (-12%)	1mo	$375,000	$187	52
490 Manor Cir	0.56mi	3/3.0	2,424 (+7%)	13mo	$479,900	$198	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $32,168
• Equity at exit: $59,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $152,429
• Equity at exit: $34,541

Cash invested: $111,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37091

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,095
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,071

Max offer price $399,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,875
• Closing costs: $11,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 E Hill Ave Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.0	1800	$5,000	$2.78	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,500 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,500 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,500 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,500 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,500 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,500 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,500 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,500 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,500 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,500 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,500 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,500 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $399,500 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    This is the first time in over 50 years that this home has been for sale. This is a move-in ready home in a wonderful neighborhood. Very spacious home with a large den, office/hobby room, large carport, 2 storage sheds, gas fireplace + much more.

14. 2026-02-26
    price $419,500 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    This is the first time in over 50 years that this home has been for sale. This is a move-in ready home in a wonderful neighborhood. Very spacious home with a large den, office/hobby room, large carport, 2 storage sheds, gas fireplace + much more.

15. 2026-01-05
    listed $439,900 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    This is the first time in over 50 years that this home has been for sale. This is a move-in ready home in a wonderful neighborhood. Very spacious home with a large den, office/hobby room, large carport, 2 storage sheds, gas fireplace + much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$856/yr (+$71/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,378
• − Property taxes: −$1,980
• − Insurance: −$1,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$11,622
• Taxable income: $12,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,981
• After-tax cash flow: $15,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 23,991

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 350.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $399,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $419,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $439,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,980 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.