1605 Kristi Loop · Lakeside, OR 97449

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1996 9,583 sqft lot $142/sqft · 31% below area Est $289k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY 3 BR 2 BA MANUFACTURED HOME IN VERY NICE LAKESIDE AREA. DOUBLE GARAGE, COVERED WALKWAY FROM HOME TO GARAGE. EXCELLENT CONDITION. EASY TO SHOW

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.22 acre (7,000–9,999 sq ft range); Property offers mountain views; Main level area reported as 1,404 (assessor)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and parking pad; Detached 2-car garage; RV parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Electric fuel/power
• Home design: Manufactured home on real property; Residential resale; Main living all on one level; 1996 construction
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 1996; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Outbuilding on property; Wood composite exterior; Paved road access; Level lot; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with attached bathroom; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms (including partials)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: One-level accessibility; Tile flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#215 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• North Bend SD 13 (town): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #21 of 58 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Bay Elementary School (math 34% / reading 42%, grade F, #197 of 412 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 69% FRL); North Bend Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 494 students, 68% FRL); North Bend Senior High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 731 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,037 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.34%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,058
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -30.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
590 Kings Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$249,000	$173	86
400 Robinhood Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	20mo	$325,000	$231	71
660 Royal Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (0%)	22mo	$258,000	$184	61
555 N 8th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	6mo	$399,500	$308	59
480 Rugh Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+4%)	21mo	$272,500	$186	49
1060 Cedar Loop	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+12%)	2mo	$435,000	$278	46
920 Nye Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (0%)	22mo	$325,000	$231	46
740 Sherwood St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (-10%)	24mo	$260,000	$205	42
1035 Nye Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	19mo	$282,500	$218	38
405 Stanley Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	20mo	$200,000	$160	30
430 Rugh Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	24mo	$243,800	$195	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,782
• Equity at exit: $67,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $79,691
• Equity at exit: $89,047

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97449

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,639/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $200,000 Active 444-char remark
2. 2006-09-12
   soldstatus $195,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   LOVELY 3 BR 2 BA MANUFACTURED HOME IN VERY NICE LAKESIDE AREA. DOUBLE GARAGE, COVERED WALKWAY FROM HOME TO GARAGE. EXCELLENT CONDITION. EASY TO SHOW

3. 2006-09-06
   soldstatus $195,000
4. 2006-07-24
   historical 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   LOVELY 3 BR 2 BA MANUFACTURED HOME IN VERY NICE LAKESIDE AREA. DOUBLE GARAGE, COVERED WALKWAY FROM HOME TO GARAGE. EXCELLENT CONDITION. EASY TO SHOW

5. 2006-03-07
   listed $199,500 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   LOVELY 3 BR 2 BA MANUFACTURED HOME IN VERY NICE LAKESIDE AREA. DOUBLE GARAGE, COVERED WALKWAY FROM HOME TO GARAGE. EXCELLENT CONDITION. EASY TO SHOW

6. 2001-04-05
   soldstatus $120,000
7. 2001-04-04
   soldstatus $120,000

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   NEAR NEW DBL WD MFGD HOME IN BEAUTIFUL SUBDIVISION. CLOSE TO LAKES, DUNES AND BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED.

8. 2001-02-08
   listed $129,000

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   NEAR NEW DBL WD MFGD HOME IN BEAUTIFUL SUBDIVISION. CLOSE TO LAKES, DUNES AND BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥81°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,639
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$72
• After-tax cash flow: $3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bend SD 13
• NCES district ID: 4108820
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,614
• Composite: 32.57/100
• National rank: #5681
• State rank: #21 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #14610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,222 people
• By 2030: 61,120 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 58,478 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 56,819 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 54,915 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 51,403 · -17.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Current HPI: 190.1581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $200,000 RMLS
• 2006-09-12 Sold (MLS) $195,000 RMLS
• 2006-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-24 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-03-07 Listed $199,500 RMLS
• 2001-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-04 Sold (MLS) $120,000 RMLS
• 2001-02-08 Listed $129,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,639 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.