326 Old State Route 22 · Wingdale, NY 12522

$479,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1925 2.50 ac lot Est $416k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0

Listing remarks

Nestled along the banks of the Ten Mile River in Dover Plains, 326 Old State Route 22 offers something truly rare — sweeping open meadows, 800 feet of private river frontage, and a warm, character-filled home all on one extraordinary parcel. With its gambrel roofline, stone chimney, and beautiful grounds, the setting feels both timeless and alive, whether you're watching the current drift past from your own riverbank or taking in the Taconic ridgeline from the sunroom on a quiet morning. Inside, hardwood floors and thoughtful details carry through the entire home. The galley kitchen features dark granite counters, rich wood cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry, flowing naturally into a cha

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Gambrel roofline
• Stone chimney

Tags

• PRIVATE RIVER FRONTAGE
• GAMBREL ROOFLINE
• STONE CHIMNEY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• DARK GRANITE COUNTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage; Off-street parking; Total parking for 10 vehicles; Four garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Waterfront location; Wood siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Steam heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Recessed lighting; Washer/dryer hookup; Full unfinished walk-out basement; Attic access via scuttle; Nine total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $479k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $479k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $479,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $415,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 White Farm Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-0%)	18mo	$385,000	$250	66
22 Riverdale Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,610 (+4%)	9mo	$449,000	$279	60
9 White Farm Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+1%)	16mo	$420,000	$270	52
6 Millers Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+12%)	20mo	$395,000	$229	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $313,726
• Equity at exit: $431,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $882,107
• Equity at exit: $930,592

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,301/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,886

Max offer price $479,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $479,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $479,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $479,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $479,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $479,000 Active
10. 1995-01-31
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,301 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,198 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,897/yr (+$158/mo · 44.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$4,301
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,740
• − Management: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable income: $2,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $9,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wingdale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+283.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $479,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,301 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.