The Welsh Plan · Port LaBelle, FL 33935

$245,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily · 433 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Listed 433 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $245,900

Exterior

• Home design: The Welsh plan (new construction); Single-level living (plan name indicates model)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1143; Built to plan standard (new construction)
• Exterior features: Asphalt/composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area

🏗️ New construction. The $245,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,319.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-648/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#750 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,261/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 433 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 433 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,319
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6008 S Moss Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+7%)	13mo	$309,900	$254	44
6014 Joy Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+9%)	24mo	$259,990	$209	36
6018 S Moss Cir	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (-10%)	11mo	$240,000	$233	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $141,641
• Equity at exit: $239,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $419,880
• Equity at exit: $517,399

Cash invested: $74,569 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 942
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,397
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $3,995/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $258,509

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,580
• Closing costs: $7,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6018 Acorn Cir Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	16d	1	0.44mi
8030 Olive Cir Labelle, FL	4.0	2.0	1499	$2,300	$1.53	3d	1	1.28mi
8004 Spice Ct Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,000	$1.55	19d	1	1.36mi
7061 Tide Cir Labelle, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,900 Active 433 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,900 Active 432 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,900 Active 431 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,900 Active 430 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,900 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,900 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,900 Active 424 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,900 Active 423 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,900 Active 422 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,900 Active 418 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,900 Active 417 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,900 Active 416 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,900 Active 415 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,918
• − Property taxes: −$3,995
• − Insurance: −$1,332
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$7,747
• Taxable loss: −$5,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,247
• After-tax cash flow: $600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hendry
• NCES district ID: 1200780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,043
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6054
• State rank: #65 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port LaBelle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #750
• US rank: #16264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port LaBelle, FL
• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Hendry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,866 people
• By 2030: 38,558 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 37,743 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 36,117 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 30,070 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 21,966 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.4% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+5.9 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B