8082 Blazing Star Rd · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1998 5.26 ac lot Est $173k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to peaceful country living! Situated on 5.26 beautiful acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Relax on the covered front patio or back deck overlooking the property and pond, perfect for enjoying Florida sunsets. The property also is fenced in with gate and features a carport and a powered shed, ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. If you're looking for privacy, space, and a true country feel, this is the one!

Key facts

• Fenced in
• 5.26 acres
• Covered front patio

Tags

• 5.26 ACRES
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• BACK DECK
• FENCED IN
• POWERED SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 spaces); Gated parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Rear porch; Fenced yard; Pond on property; Cleared areas; Few trees; Wetlands; Dirt road access; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Partially furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($1/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcrae Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 536 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $235k implies a 434% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,806 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5476 Leaning Oak Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	20mo	$160,000	$139	46
7929 Honeydew Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	8mo	$40,000	$37	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-38,201
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-33,776
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $512/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $67	+0% $0	+5% $-66	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-69	+0% $0	+5% $69	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $60	base $0	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $235,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 495-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,438/yr (+$120/mo · 280.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$512
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $1,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+486.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $235,000 realMLS
• 1994-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $512 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.