616 Thomas Rd · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1947 7,492 sqft lot $175/sqft · 23% below area Est $168k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 616 Thomas road, a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offering unbeatable value in the heart of Lynchburg! Conveniently located just minutes from the University of Lynchburg and Liberty University, this property is perfect for both homeowners and savvy investors alike. Step inside and see the potential- this home is ready for your personal touch and offers a fantastic opportunity to build instant equity with a little sweat. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence or your next investment project, this one checks the boxes with location, price, and upside. Don't miss your chance to own a property in a this area with strong rental demand and long-term growth potential. Opport

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1947

Tags

• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• LONG-TERM GROWTH POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area: 744
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perrymont Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 337 students, 95% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,542 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,873
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -22.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Thomas Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	742 (-0%)	2mo	$105,000	$142	97
718 Kenbridge Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	742 (-0%)	3mo	$176,696	$238	84
1200 Brandon Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	6mo	$169,900	$201	64
3211 Richmond St	0.69mi	2/1.0	755 (+2%)	2mo	$179,900	$238	64
511 Blue Ridge St	0.66mi	2/1.0	695 (-7%)	2mo	$123,000	$177	57
507 Blue Ridge St	0.65mi	2/1.0	691 (-7%)	2mo	$136,000	$197	56
3400 College Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	802 (+8%)	6mo	$169,900	$212	56
623 Hood St	0.74mi	2/1.0	775 (+4%)	9mo	$143,000	$185	52
3508 Joel St	0.71mi	2/1.0	786 (+6%)	8mo	$190,000	$242	51
4637 Fairmont Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	834 (+12%)	1mo	$148,000	$177	47
202 Macon St	0.71mi	2/1.0	645 (-13%)	3mo	$125,000	$194	42
209 College Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	853 (+15%)	3mo	$154,900	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,380
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,088
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $149	+0% $112	+5% $76	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $66	+0% $112	+5% $159	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $145	base $112	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	21d	1	0.22mi
202 Macon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,195	$1.85	44d	1	0.67mi
1501 Granville St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	14d	1	1.01mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	44d	1	1.30mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$870	$0.94	44d	2	1.35mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $129,900 Active 761-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · +47.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.