20114 Atascocita Shores Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1983 5,932 sqft lot $158/sqft · 11% below area Est $383k · 15% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful renovated home with fantastic views of Lake Houston. This isn't just a home, it's a life style and this home across from the water is sure to please! Master Suite down, huge back deck, gorgeous updates, convenient location! Large living room overlooking to fantastic deck outside. Spacious kitchen with lots of storage, attached breakfast room and dining room. Roof less than one year old. Just down the street is the marina to launch your boat for a great day on the water, or enjoy a game of tennis at 1 of the 2 neighborhood courts/parks, along with pools PLUS a public golf course within this prestigious community.

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• Master suite down
• Huge back deck

Tags

• VIEWS OF LAKE HOUSTON
• MASTER SUITE DOWN
• HUGE BACK DECK
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• LIVING ROOM OVERLOOKING DECK
• LOTS OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Prestige Association Management; Annual association fee of $654; HOA includes clubhouse; Community pool; Golf access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1983; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Has a view
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Near golf course; Subdivision setting; Views; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15x14); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 16x12); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12x12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; One fireplace; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-474 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pineforest El (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 609 students, 49% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $325k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,346 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,693
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -15.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20256 Ivy Point Cir	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,076 (+1%)	2mo	$345,500	$166	66
20214 Atascocita Lk	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,280 (+11%)	15mo	$549,000	$241	65
20246 Atascocita Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,279 (+10%)	13mo	$499,000	$219	64
19507 Gamble Oak Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,990 (-4%)	1mo	$234,900	$118	61
20335 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,324 (+13%)	1mo	$364,000	$157	59
20107 Sunny Shores Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,071 (+0%)	10mo	$295,000	$142	56
19503 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,165 (+5%)	2mo	$255,000	$118	55
19523 Gamble Oak Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-8%)	2mo	$269,000	$142	52
20031 Sunny Shores Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,974 (-4%)	5mo	$299,900	$152	52
8218 Magnolia Glen Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,332 (+13%)	7mo	$440,000	$189	45
8427 Pines Place Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (-11%)	3mo	$249,900	$137	41
19515 Shady Cove Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,184 (+6%)	14mo	$275,000	$126	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,619
• Equity at exit: $79,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-90,205
• Equity at exit: $83,742

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,447/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $241,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-290	-5% $-382	+0% $-474	+5% $-566	+10% $-658
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-567	+0% $-474	+5% $-380	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-391	base $-474	+0.5pp $-558	+1.0pp $-644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20204 Atascocita Shores Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,420	$1.16	0d	1	0.10mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	45d	1	0.58mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	23d	1	1.17mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	25d	1	1.37mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $325,000 Active 629-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    historical $2,500
18. 2026-04-16
    price $2,500
19. 2026-03-25
    price $2,600
20. 2026-03-09
    listed $2,700
21. 2025-03-02
    historical $2,600
22. 2025-02-28
    listed $2,600
23. 2004-05-26
    historical
24. 2004-03-22
    listed $155,000
25. 1991-04-01
    soldstatus $129,000
26. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus $129,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,447 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$500/yr (+$42/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$5,447
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,752
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+151.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed for Rent $2,700 HARMLS
• 2025-03-02 Rental Removed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2004-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-03-22 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 1991-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,447 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.