Lowry Plan · Blaine, MN 55449

$470,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 509 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

Key facts

• Open-plan kitchen
• Gathering room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MULTIFUNCTIONAL SPACE
• OPEN-PLAN KITCHEN
• GATHERING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $470,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $541,202.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $471k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Johnsville Elementary (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #310 of 857 statewide, top 37%, 674 students, 44% FRL); Roosevelt Middle (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #51 of 258 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 30% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 509 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,661 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 509 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $541,202
• List price: $470,990
• Delta: -12.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4393 128th Ln NE	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,245 (+4%)	8mo	$515,000	$229	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-150,551
• Equity at exit: $80,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-197,481
• Equity at exit: $46,793

Cash invested: $151,536 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55449

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,838
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$677 /mo · $8,118/yr
• Insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $-1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,734

Max offer price $387,138

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-691	-5% $-878	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-1,252	+10% $-1,439
Rent	-10% $-1,332	-5% $-1,198	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-931	+10% $-797
Rate	-1.0pp $-792	-0.5pp $-927	base $-1,065	+0.5pp $-1,205	+1.0pp $-1,348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $135,300
• Closing costs: $16,236
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12283 Ghia Ct NE Unit B Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,940	$1.54	46d	1	0.43mi
13202 Jewell St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2217	$3,943	$1.78	0d	10	0.81mi
12335 Midway Cir NE Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,800	$1.30	5d	1	1.14mi
2445 120th Cir NE Blaine, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1894	$3,833	$2.02	0d	18	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $470,990 Active 509 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,990 Active 506 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,990 Active 505 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,990 Active 504 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,990 Active 503 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,990 Active 501 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,990 Active 500 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,990 Active 497 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,990 Active 496 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $470,990 Active 495 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $470,990 Active 492 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,990 Active 491 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $470,990 Active 490 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $470,990 Active 489 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $470,990 Active 488 DOM
16. 2026-02-08
    price $470,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

17. 2025-12-13
    price $468,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

18. 2025-10-05
    price $465,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

19. 2025-09-07
    price $463,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

20. 2025-08-13
    price $461,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

21. 2025-07-04
    price $459,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

22. 2025-05-03
    price $458,990 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

23. 2025-01-29
    listed $456,990 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    The Lowry epitomizes versatility, effortlessly transitioning from a private sanctuary to a vibrant family hub. The main floor hosts a multifunctional space adjacent to the foyer, perfect for a den, dining area, home office, guest suite, or playroom, offering endless possibilities. An open-plan kitchen flows into the cafe space and a bright, welcoming gathering room, ensuring a cohesive and harmonious environment throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,316
• − Property taxes: −$8,118
• − Insurance: −$2,706
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,251
• − Management: −$3,251
• − Depreciation: −$15,744
• Taxable loss: −$22,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,459
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 67,472
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,443
• Household income: $131,832
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 10% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Arabic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.24%
• Current HPI: 225.2348
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $470,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $468,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $463,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $461,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $459,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $458,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Listed $456,990 Zillow