3283 Graham Rd · Draper, VA 24324

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1984 7,405 sqft lot Est $80k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, private home with back porch views of creek. Located conveniently to I81. Large walk-in closet off master bedroom. Brand new heat pump and HVAC system 2021. Updated flooring throughout, tiled shower, new siding.

Key facts

• Creek in backyard
• Deck
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• CREEK IN BACKYARD
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#412 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Critzer Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 402 students, 80% FRL); Pulaski County Middle (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 807 students, 77% FRL); Pulaski County Senior High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,246 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 47% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3283 Graham Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	760 (0%)	0mo	$80,000	$105	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-8,170
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $112
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24324

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $314/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $112	+0% $88	+5% $64	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $55	+0% $88	+5% $121	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $110	base $88	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $85,000 Active
3. 2026-02-26
   soldstatus $134,586
4. 2023-04-19
   status Pending
5. 2022-12-14
   listed $100,000 Active
6. 2022-03-24
   soldstatus $94,000 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Beautiful, private home with back porch views of creek. Located conveniently to I81. Large walk-in closet off master bedroom. Brand new heat pump and HVAC system 2021. Updated flooring throughout, tiled shower, new siding.

7. 2021-09-28
   listed $89,000 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Beautiful, private home with back porch views of creek. Located conveniently to I81. Large walk-in closet off master bedroom. Brand new heat pump and HVAC system 2021. Updated flooring throughout, tiled shower, new siding.

8. 2011-12-20
   soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$314
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$804
• − Management: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $1,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103150
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,912
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2537
• State rank: #86 of 131 in VA

Livability — Draper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #17276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,442

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,949 people
• By 2030: 31,812 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,224 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 26,691 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 21,312 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 15,697 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 7% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.99%
• Current HPI: 167.7798
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+709.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $85,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $134,586 Public Records
• 2023-04-19 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2022-12-14 Listed $100,000 NRVMLS
• 2022-03-24 Sold (MLS) $94,000 NRVMLS
• 2021-09-28 Listed $89,000 NRVMLS
• 2011-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $314 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.