3000 N Romero Rd Unit A9 · Tucson, AZ 85705

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Built 1995 1,730 sqft lot $19/sqft · 40% below area Est $25k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Romero Estates, this all-age community is perfect for anyone that wants a manufactured home with a backyard. Needs some TLC but it's a great price. Land Rent is 650.00 per month

Key facts

• 1,730 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1995

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $15,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$25,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.3% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 221.30%
• DSCR: 10.85
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,000
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -40.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3120 N Romero Rd #45	0.14mi	2/2.0	740 (-6%)	21mo	$52,000	$70	63
3426 N Romero Rd #16	0.54mi	2/2.0	756 (-4%)	21mo	$7,000	$9	48
3426 N Romero Rd #76	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	710 (-9%)	13mo	$30,000	$42	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.47×
• Total profit: $43,978
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.54×
• Total profit: $90,454
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $785	-5% $780	+0% $775	+5% $769	+10% $764
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $731	+0% $775	+5% $818	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $778	base $775	+0.5pp $771	+1.0pp $767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3055 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	652	$1,099	$1.68	4d	3	0.27mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	44d	1	0.59mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	2d	25	0.81mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$1,100	$1.98	44d	5	1.05mi
738 W Paris Prome Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	727	$1,300	$1.79	4d	1	1.14mi
2120 N Silverbell Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	728	$1,137	$1.56	44d	1	1.16mi
2120 N Silverbell Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	728	$1,129	$1.55	16d	1	1.16mi
2120 N Silverbell Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	15d	1	1.16mi
2299 N Silverbell Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	630	$1,260	$2.00	3d	7	1.17mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	44d	1	1.18mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	1.19mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	44d	4	1.21mi
450 W Kelso St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	569	$890	$1.56	4d	4	1.25mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	1.27mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	1.27mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	16d	1	1.27mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-14 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	670	$895	$1.34	44d	1	1.27mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	1.27mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	44d	13	1.27mi
455 W Kelso St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	651	$800	$1.23	45d	3	1.28mi
1616 N Mohave Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,100	$1.28	22d	1	1.30mi
2620 N 14th Ave Unit WI2620-7 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	835	$1,195	$1.43	4d	1	1.30mi
2620 N 14th Ave Unit WI2620-8 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	835	$795	$0.95	44d	1	1.30mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	44d	3	1.31mi
352 W Delano St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	939	$1,200	$1.28	4d	1	1.34mi
520 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	557	$1,076	$1.93	4d	16	1.34mi
324 W Navajo Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	44d	1	1.39mi
1605 N Yavapai St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,799	$1.65	44d	1	1.40mi
1605 N Yavapai St Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,349	$1.80	44d	1	1.40mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	24d	3	1.41mi
3036 N Balboa Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,100	$1.13	3d	1	1.41mi
1595 N Yavapai St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1115	$1,599	$1.43	44d	1	1.42mi
3020 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	3d	1	1.42mi
2550 W Ironwood Hill Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	928	$1,199	$1.29	2d	20	1.42mi
3038 N Balboa Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	44d	1	1.42mi
3066 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$844	$1.53	24d	2	1.43mi
2740 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$745	$1.24	3d	9	1.45mi
532 W Simmons Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	566	$1,000	$1.77	17d	1	1.46mi
297 W Kelso St Apt 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$750	$0.97	44d	1	1.47mi
297 W Kelso St Unit 04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$850	$1.10	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $15,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    status Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Welcome to Romero Estates, this all-age community is perfect for anyone that wants a manufactured home with a backyard. Needs some TLC but it's a great price. Land Rent is 650.00 per month

16. 2026-03-09
    historical Active Contingent 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Welcome to Romero Estates, this all-age community is perfect for anyone that wants a manufactured home with a backyard. Needs some TLC but it's a great price. Land Rent is 650.00 per month

17. 2026-03-08
    listed $15,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Welcome to Romero Estates, this all-age community is perfect for anyone that wants a manufactured home with a backyard. Needs some TLC but it's a great price. Land Rent is 650.00 per month

18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-09-17
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $9,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $6,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-62.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-08 Listed $15,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-17 Listed $40,000 MLSSAZ