19527 Shady Bank Dr · Houston, TX 77375

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1984 3,881 sqft lot Est $218k · 10% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Three Lakes East offers a smart layout and comfortable living in a convenient Tomball location. With 1,110 sq ft, this one-story home features a bright living area with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, an open flow into the breakfast and kitchen spaces, and a functional floor plan ideal for everyday living. The interior shows clean, neutral finishes with a mix of tile and carpet flooring, creating a fresh and versatile feel throughout. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage and opens easily to the main living space, making it practical for both daily use and entertaining. Outside, enjoy a manageable subdivision lot and attached 1-ca

Key facts

• Smart layout
• Zoned to klein isd
• 3,881 sq ft lot

Tags

• SMART LAYOUT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• MANAGEABLE SUBDIVISION LOT
• ZONED TO KLEIN ISD
• EASY ACCESS TO TX-249

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Three Lakes East homeowners association — $350 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank options
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Built in 1984
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (First floor) — approx. 10 x 8; Breakfast nook (First floor) — approx. 11 x 10
• Bedrooms: Primary Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 11 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 11 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 10 x 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary Bathroom (First floor) — approx. 8 x 4; Bathroom (First floor) — approx. 7 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Disposal (kitchen)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kohrville El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 736 students, 64% FRL); Klein Cain H S (math 43% / reading 57%, grade D+, #495 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 3,902 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,560
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19530 Shady Bank Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+12%)	17mo	$215,000	$173	65
19330 Evening Glen Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,165 (+5%)	6mo	$186,000	$160	54
11215 Northam Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+4%)	11mo	$230,000	$199	50
11426 Edmond Thorpe Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,129 (+2%)	20mo	$240,000	$213	49
19318 Bold River Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,168 (+5%)	20mo	$210,000	$180	42
12210 Evening Glen Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+10%)	15mo	$239,000	$196	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,147
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,971
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 666
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $217	+0% $162	+5% $107	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $82	+0% $162	+5% $242	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $211	base $162	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19414 Ambrosia Falls Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	25d	1	0.20mi
11706 Sardis Lake Dr Unit 1570350P Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$5,540	$4.64	3d	1	0.32mi
11411 Edmond Thorpe Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$2,750	$2.04	44d	1	0.69mi
11201 Boudreaux Cir Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	44d	1	0.78mi
10921 Boudreaux Rd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,980	$1.82	0d	40	0.89mi
11743 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,669	$1.69	0d	19	1.06mi
11740 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1198	$2,423	$2.02	0d	18	1.10mi
18315 Westlock St Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,700	$1.50	18d	1	1.20mi
12101 Northpointe Blvd Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,879	$1.90	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2026-02-14
   historical
4. 2025-06-17
   price $215,000
5. 2025-05-22
   listed $230,000 Active
6. 2025-05-22
   historical
7. 2025-03-02
   listed $230,000 Active
8. 2025-01-16
   soldstatus
9. 2025-01-14
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2024-12-31
    status Pending
11. 2024-12-27
    status Option Pending
12. 2024-11-26
    price $195,000
13. 2024-08-22
    listed $200,000 Active
14. 2024-08-01
    historical $200,000
15. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus
16. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus
17. 1988-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,675 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,675 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $2,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-02 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Coming Soon $200,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,675 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.