209 Johnson Dr · Falls, PA 19030

$129,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 385 Days on market

Built 2025 6,300 sqft lot $140/sqft · 62% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new 2 bedroom, 2 bath home designed perfectly for the empty nesters, someone downsizing or a starter home.  Neutral decor allows for an easy accommodation to any decorating style.  Ceiling fans, crown molding, extra-large kitchen, recessed lights and stainless-steel appliances mark the beauty of this home.  A separate utility room for your washer and dryer, central air and a walk-in shower in the master bath are additional features of the home.  Brand new walkways and a large patio compliment the outside of the home and provide a relaxing place to entertain or simply enjoy the outdoors. This is a private community, and a monthly lot rent applies * * The home is still under construction but available for showing

Key facts

• Large patio
• Private community
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• LARGE PATIO
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pennsbury SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #67 of 539 in PA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.94%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,013
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -61.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $38,508
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $109,998
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19030

• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
380 Lincoln Hwy Fairless Hills, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	3d	4	0.48mi
24 Avenrowe Ct Fairless Hills, PA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,500	$1.52	14d	1	0.91mi
251 S Olds Blvd Fairless Hills, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$2,185	$2.73	3d	1	0.93mi
3401 N Oxford Valley Rd Unit G-13 Levittown, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,675	$2.09	43d	1	0.94mi
8590 New Falls Rd Levittown, PA	1.0	1.0	603	$1,497	$2.48	1d	3	1.31mi
21 Barberry Ln Levittown, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,679	$2.68	1d	1	1.43mi
602 Hidden Forest Ct Fairless Hills, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	799	$1,750	$2.19	3d	18	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 384 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 383 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 382 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 380 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 379 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 376 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 375 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 374 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 371 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 370 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 369 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 368 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 367 DOM
15. 2025-05-29
    listed $129,500 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Brand new 2 bedroom, 2 bath home designed perfectly for the empty nesters, someone downsizing or a starter home.  Neutral decor allows for an easy accommodation to any decorating style.  Ceiling fans, crown molding, extra-large kitchen, recessed lights and stainless-steel appliances mark the beauty of this home.  A separate utility room for your washer and dryer, central air and a walk-in shower in the master bath are additional features of the home.  Brand new walkways and a large patio compliment the outside of the home and provide a relaxing place to entertain or simply enjoy the outdoors. This is a private community, and a monthly lot rent applies * * The home is still under construction but available for showing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 266.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $9,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,312
• After-tax cash flow: $8,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pennsbury SD
• NCES district ID: 4218840
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,495
• Composite: 52.3/100
• National rank: #1594
• State rank: #67 of 539 in PA

Livability — Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairless Hills, PA
• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 12,305
• Household income: $96,603
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Asian 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.91%
• Current HPI: 309.8975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-29 Listed $129,500 BRIGHT MLS