15639 W Wiggler St · Willow, AK 99652

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · Other public records · 342 Days on market

Built 2006 1.96 ac lot $443/sqft · 323% above area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outdoor getaway on the banks of the Little Susitna! With easy river access, great fishing, and tons of space these two lots have great natural views all around. Remote and tranquil with the comfort of 3 cozy cabins and easy access to Houston, Big Lake, or Wasilla for all your in town needs. This is truly an outdoorsmans retreat! One lot holds all 3 cabins and the other lot is structure free. Additional features include solar panels for electricity and propane heat. This is perfect for anyone looking for a quiet retreat, fun fishing spot, and lots of space for Alaskan adventures.

Key facts

• 1.96 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,521
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 158.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $36,660
• Equity at exit: $87,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $111,824
• Equity at exit: $135,126

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $263	+0% $208	+5% $153	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $140	+0% $208	+5% $276	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $258	base $208	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 332 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 326 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 325 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 324 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 323 DOM
16. 2025-07-11
    listed $195,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Outdoor getaway on the banks of the Little Susitna! With easy river access, great fishing, and tons of space these two lots have great natural views all around. Remote and tranquil with the comfort of 3 cozy cabins and easy access to Houston, Big Lake, or Wasilla for all your in town needs. This is truly an outdoorsmans retreat! One lot holds all 3 cabins and the other lot is structure free. Additional features include solar panels for electricity and propane heat. This is perfect for anyone looking for a quiet retreat, fun fishing spot, and lots of space for Alaskan adventures.

17. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus Closed 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Introducing a charming multi-cabin retreat nestled in the heart of Houston, Alaska, right on the banks of the serene Little Susitna River. This picturesque property offers the perfect blend of rustic tranquility and modern comfort. With multiple cozy cabins, it's ideal for a family getaway, fishing expedition, or a serene escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Features: - Multiple cabins for flexible accommodation options. - Direct riverfront access for fishing, kayaking, and relaxation. - Stunning views of the Alaskan wilderness and river. - A true nature lover's paradise with abundant wildlife and outdoor activities. - Easy access to Wasilla, Big Lake and Houston for shopping and dining. Escape to this Alaskan haven and experience the beauty and serenity of the Last Frontier right at your doorstep. Whether you seek adventure or simply want to unwind in a peaceful setting, this multi-cabin property offers it all. Don't miss the opportunity to make this enchanting retreat your own.

18. 2023-09-29
    status Pending 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Introducing a charming multi-cabin retreat nestled in the heart of Houston, Alaska, right on the banks of the serene Little Susitna River. This picturesque property offers the perfect blend of rustic tranquility and modern comfort. With multiple cozy cabins, it's ideal for a family getaway, fishing expedition, or a serene escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Features: - Multiple cabins for flexible accommodation options. - Direct riverfront access for fishing, kayaking, and relaxation. - Stunning views of the Alaskan wilderness and river. - A true nature lover's paradise with abundant wildlife and outdoor activities. - Easy access to Wasilla, Big Lake and Houston for shopping and dining. Escape to this Alaskan haven and experience the beauty and serenity of the Last Frontier right at your doorstep. Whether you seek adventure or simply want to unwind in a peaceful setting, this multi-cabin property offers it all. Don't miss the opportunity to make this enchanting retreat your own.

19. 2023-09-19
    listed $200,000 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Introducing a charming multi-cabin retreat nestled in the heart of Houston, Alaska, right on the banks of the serene Little Susitna River. This picturesque property offers the perfect blend of rustic tranquility and modern comfort. With multiple cozy cabins, it's ideal for a family getaway, fishing expedition, or a serene escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Features: - Multiple cabins for flexible accommodation options. - Direct riverfront access for fishing, kayaking, and relaxation. - Stunning views of the Alaskan wilderness and river. - A true nature lover's paradise with abundant wildlife and outdoor activities. - Easy access to Wasilla, Big Lake and Houston for shopping and dining. Escape to this Alaskan haven and experience the beauty and serenity of the Last Frontier right at your doorstep. Whether you seek adventure or simply want to unwind in a peaceful setting, this multi-cabin property offers it all. Don't miss the opportunity to make this enchanting retreat your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$852/yr (+$71/mo · 138.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$190
• After-tax cash flow: $2,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Willow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #19315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow, AK
• City population: 2,542
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-11 Listed $195,000 AKMLS
• 2023-10-13 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2023-09-29 Pending — AKMLS
• 2023-09-19 Listed $200,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.