313 Locust St · Providence, KY 42450

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other · 71 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot $89/sqft · 27% above area Est $71k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and affordable 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located on a corner lot in the heart of Providence, KY! This property features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, perfect for a family or first time home buyers! Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car attached carport along with plenty of additional parking space—ideal for guests or families with multiple vehicles. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home offers both comfort and practicality at a great value. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Corner lot
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL PARKING SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($937 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Providence Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 290 students, 76% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $90k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.22%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,057
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 26.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $36,387
• Equity at exit: $53,131

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $97,208
• Equity at exit: $93,557

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $200/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $240	+0% $214	+5% $189	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $177	+0% $214	+5% $251	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $237	base $214	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-04-23
    status Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming and affordable 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located on a corner lot in the heart of Providence, KY! This property features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, perfect for a family or first time home buyers! Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car attached carport along with plenty of additional parking space—ideal for guests or families with multiple vehicles. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home offers both comfort and practicality at a great value. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

20. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming and affordable 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located on a corner lot in the heart of Providence, KY! This property features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, perfect for a family or first time home buyers! Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car attached carport along with plenty of additional parking space—ideal for guests or families with multiple vehicles. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home offers both comfort and practicality at a great value. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

21. 2026-03-27
    listed $89,900 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Charming and affordable 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located on a corner lot in the heart of Providence, KY! This property features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, perfect for a family or first time home buyers! Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car attached carport along with plenty of additional parking space—ideal for guests or families with multiple vehicles. Situated on a manageable lot with easy access to local amenities, this home offers both comfort and practicality at a great value. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

22. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $21,000
23. 2011-02-18
    soldstatus $41,000
24. 1999-11-01
    soldstatus $11,334

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $200 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$573/yr (+$48/mo · 286.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$200
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$899
• − Management: −$899
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$274
• After-tax cash flow: $2,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+693.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 MHCBOR
• 2021-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,334 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.