14876 Lucca Way · Dade City, FL 33523

$241,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,600 sqft lot Est $240k · at est. $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Create lifelong memories when you step inside your brand new three bedroom, two and half bath townhome with beautiful, new finishes throughout. Picture yourself in the kitchen cooking using your brand new stainless steel appliances. When it's time to call it a day, head up to your large primary bedroom, which features an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bathroom. Through our Starlight Advantage Program, buyers can get all closing costs paid or receive special interest rates

Key facts

• Brand new finishes
• Attached bathroom
• Corner unit

Tags

• BRAND NEW FINISHES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• CORNER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Permit number: 20251421
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Triad Association Management; HOA required; $130 monthly ($1,560 annually); Community features: deed restrictions, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (11 x 19); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Residential townhouse; New construction, completed; Two stories; Faces west; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Cement siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Ashton Woods (Model: Pulsar)
• Exterior features: Patio; Outdoor lighting; Metered sprinkler/irrigation equipment; Trees and landscaped yard; Corner lot with sidewalk; Public maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry with laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $242k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rodney B. Cox Elementary School (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,080 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 428 students, 97% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $208,904 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,778
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14907 Lucca Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	2mo	$250,320	$181	97
14903 Lucca Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	3mo	$240,490	$174	96
14926 Lucca Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	3mo	$239,870	$173	96
14891 Lucca Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	4mo	$237,320	$171	96
14910 Lucca Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	7mo	$230,140	$166	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $137,924
• Equity at exit: $218,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $401,228
• Equity at exit: $470,133

Cash invested: $67,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $241,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,498
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.05mi
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,761	$1.69	21d	1	1.09mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,391	$2.79	4d	1	1.22mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	16d	1	1.26mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	4d	1	1.27mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	3d	1	1.27mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	4d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,990 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   status $241,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-07
   listed $241,990 Active
8. 2025-07-14
   soldstatus $4,576,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,365/yr (+$114/mo · 212.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,555
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$2,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $1,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse features new finishes throughout, including stainless steel appliances and wood flooring, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance
• Resale New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $241,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $4,576,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+145.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $643 · +145.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.