7421 Adkins Rd · Charles City, VA 23030

$210,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1983 0.94 ac lot $175/sqft · 22% below area Est $270k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller Discloses that Septic system needs to be replaced. Seller has permit in hand and estimates to replace. Four bedroom home with large living room and eat-in kitchen. Hardwood floors throughout that are in pretty good shape. One full bath and one half bath. New roof in 2024. Needs updating, but offers lots of potential. Replace septic system and live here while you update.

Key facts

• Large living room
• Eat-in kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#465 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Charles City County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #120 of 131 in VA (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Charles City County Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 315 students, 88% FRL); Charles City County High (math 22% / reading 72%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 247 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 52% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Charles City County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles City County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,069 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,458
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9251 Holly Tree Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-8%)	13mo	$293,500	$266	57
9000 Church Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+7%)	13mo	$259,000	$201	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-28,471
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,885
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23030

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $888/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $148	+0% $89	+5% $29	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $21	+0% $89	+5% $156	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $142	base $89	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $210,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Seller Discloses that Septic system needs to be replaced. Seller has permit in hand and estimates to replace. Four bedroom home with large living room and eat-in kitchen. Hardwood floors throughout that are in pretty good shape. One full bath and one half bath. New roof in 2024. Needs updating, but offers lots of potential. Replace septic system and live here while you update.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$69/mo · 93.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$888
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles City County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100720
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,978
• Composite: 34.36/100
• National rank: #5223
• State rank: #120 of 131 in VA

Livability — Charles City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #465
• US rank: #19907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,385
• Population (ZIP): 4,385

Population outlook (Charles City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,639 people
• By 2030: 6,338 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 5,597 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 4,769 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 3,762 · -43.3%
• By 2100: 3,200 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 41% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles City

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 54.9% · R 44.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 37.3pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+19.4 2016: D+23.0 2012: D+32.7 2008: D+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.25%
• Current HPI: 170.1704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $210,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $888 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.