5654 Dug Hollow Rd · Clay, AL 35126

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1980 0.36 ac lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $195k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks in Pinson! Discover incredible value in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly positioned for both savvy investors and primary homeowners. Built in 2008, this property offers a spacious and functional floor plan designed for comfortable living. Ideally suited for those looking to build instant equity, the home has a proven track record as a successful rental property, making it a "turnkey" addition to any investment portfolio. This home stands out in the Pinson market, offering a rare combination of affordability and solid rental history. Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes from local parks, shopping, and dining, all while benefiting

Key facts

• Solid rental history
• Spacious floor plan
• Shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• SUCCESSFUL RENTAL PROPERTY
• SOLID RENTAL HISTORY
• LOCAL PARKS
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.36 acres; Subdivision: COSBY HILLS
• Financial info: No investor or multifamily income/expense information provided
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Rear garage entry; Detached 1-car garage (main level); Driveway parking and off-street parking; 2-car carport
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Gas water heater; Internet service available
• Home design: Single-story living (all rooms listed on main level); Vinyl siding construction; Existing (previously built) structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Open deck; Some trees on the lot; No pool; No patio; Not waterfront; No garden/patio listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Gas stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Carpet floors; Ceilings noted as 'Other (see remarks)'; All window treatments remain; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Attic present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($294/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AL, #3,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 10% / reading 40%, grade F, #414 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 632 students, 48% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $190k implies a 395% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,180 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,946
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -2.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5949 Dewey Heights Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	3mo	$159,900	$132	86
6414 Kimberly Loop	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+7%)	6mo	$175,000	$140	73
5933 Dewey Heights Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-7%)	9mo	$169,900	$157	72
5659 Cheryl Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-14%)	10mo	$150,000	$149	66
5584 Dug Hollow Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+13%)	7mo	$116,500	$88	62
6536 Chrissy Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,133 (-3%)	7mo	$190,000	$168	57
6487 Chrissy Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,129 (-4%)	9mo	$189,900	$168	57
6602 Womack Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-14%)	2mo	$147,000	$146	54
5959 Shane Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,070 (-9%)	13mo	$135,000	$126	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,406
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,030
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35126

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,416/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5653 Cheryl Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1015	$1,220	$1.20	11d	1	0.03mi
6541 Womack Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,470	$1.28	24d	1	0.39mi
6568 Davison Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,435	$1.36	44d	1	0.48mi
6594 Davison Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,650	$1.27	24d	1	0.51mi
6469 Chrissy Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,465	$1.32	10d	1	0.65mi
5433 Faucett Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,395	$1.22	10d	1	1.24mi
5421 Faucett Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	3d	1	1.27mi
6877 Briarwood Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,595	$1.15	44d	1	1.29mi
5944 Tyler Loop Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,485	$1.19	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $190,000 Active 868-char remark
15. 2015-08-13
    soldstatus $38,400
16. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus $46,400
17. 1983-04-01
    soldstatus $42,690

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,416
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $1,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Clay

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,599
• Household income: $83,732
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 267.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.52%
• Current HPI: 188.6439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+345.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $190,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $38,400 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,400 Public Records
• 1983-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,690 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,416 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.